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FXUS06 KWBC 141903
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JUNE 14 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 24 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS DEPICTED BY THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND
CANADIAN MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLIFIED 500-HPA FLOW FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD
OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH FEW CHANGES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. SOLUTIONS FAVOR
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA. WEAK RIDGING IS ALSO FAVORED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS. THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAVORS CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70% FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A
SECONDARY MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING
IN BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY FOR THE GREAT BASIN WHERE
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80% FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ODDS ALSO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. UNDER CONTINUED TROUGHING ALOFT. GUIDANCE FROM FORECAST MODELS
AND INTERNAL FORECAST TOOLS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES IN ALASKA AND GENERALLY FAVOR A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN ALASKA AND ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHEASTERN
ALASKA.
THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ONSHORE
FLOW USHERING IN MOIST AIR. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND DISPLACED WESTWARD RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S SOLUTIONS, SO
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS HAVE
WEAKENED SOMEWHAT. ODDS ALSO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PROVIDING
INSTABILITY AND SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WEAK RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LIMITS THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS MOIST
FLOW AND RESULTS IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TEXAS
AND NEW MEXICO. POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER HUDSON BAY ALSO RESULT IN A TILT
TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHERN MAINE. MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OVER ALASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHERE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY
WEAKENING OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 28 2023
OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD HAVE BEEN SHOWING
A LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND FURTHERMORE,
SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE ZONAL FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA
BORDER. NONETHELESS, MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE WEST
COAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN
CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14
DAY PERIOD THAT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITIES GIVEN A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN.
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO CONTINUED ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER THAN YESTERDAY’S FORECAST BUT STILL EXCEED 60%
FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS, ONCE AGAIN WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY
MAXIMUM EXCEEDING 50% OVER MINNESOTA. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD, PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFT TO
CALIFORNIA, WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADA BORDER WESTWARD TO WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN OREGON. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WEAK
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MIXED SIGNALS CONTINUE FOR THE ALASKA REGION
FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA.
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES
INTO WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OVERALL ARE LOWER WITH A WEAKER AMPLITUDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. ODDS STILL FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL CONUS WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER
THE WEST COAST, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES DO NOT EXCEED 50% AND MOSTLY STAY BELOW
40%. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST U.S. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS WITH
PERSISTENT RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
CONTINUED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED MOVING FROM THE BERING SEA OVER
ALASKA, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHICH TILTS TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES ON THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET
BY WEAKER ANOMALIES REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980608 - 19720622 - 19650617 - 19980613 - 19700621
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980609 - 19720622 - 19980614 - 19750612 - 19700618
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 20 - 24 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO B N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N
MASS B N CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 28 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B N
UTAH B N ARIZONA B N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP N N MAINE A N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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