510
FXUS01 KWBC 142001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2023
VALID 00Z THU JUN 15 2023 - 00Z SAT JUN 17 2023
...ACTIVE STRETCH OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHEAST, PLAINS, AND
ROCKIES...
...RECORD-BREAKING AND OPPRESSIVE HEAT FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
SOUTH FLORIDA...
...UNSETTLED AND COOL WEATHER FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST;
TRANQUIL, NEAR-AVERAGE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEST COAST...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS SPRING-LIKE SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AND PLAINS INTO THE ROCKIES. ENERGETIC WESTERLY
SOUTHERN-STREAM FLOW OVER A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING
ACROSS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS SETTLED IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST WILL PROVIDE THE TRIGGER AND FUEL FOR ORGANIZED,
STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ONE AREA OF FOCUS FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ON THURSDAY WILL BE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND
GEORGIA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN EFFECT. THE COMBINATION OF CLUSTERING, ORGANIZED STORMS
FOCUSING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND DEEP MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE REGION FOR A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A BROAD SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT AS VERY STRONG CAPE
VALUES AND THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR JUNE STANDARDS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE
RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND SEVERAL TORNADOES, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT INSTANCES OF EACH THREAT.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST,
BROAD, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALONG
WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE REGION AS WELL AS MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO YET ANOTHER FOCUS AREA FOR
HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS AND THE RISK OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THURSDAY AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER, SUMMER-LIKE HEAT IS FORECAST
TO SOAR THROUGHOUT THE LONE STAR STATE INTO THE END OF THE WEEK
AND BEYOND, WITH ONLY THE TEXAS PANHANDLE OMITTED FROM TRIPLE
DIGIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. WHEN COMBINED WITH OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST, HEAT
INDICES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 120 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES CAN
BE VERY DANGEROUS IF SPENDING EXTENDED TIME OUTDOORS OR IN AREAS
WITHOUT PROPER AIR CONDITIONING. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE
ANOMALOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND GRADUALLY INTO MORE OF
WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, WHILE ALSO THREATENING SOME DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO FOLLOW PROPER
HEAT SAFETY AND HEED WARNINGS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. ADDITIONALLY,
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WHEN COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAVE PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, AND WEST TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH THE THREAT ALSO FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
POTENTIALLY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-90S
ARE ALSO FORECAST FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES PUSHING
EASTWARD FOLLOWED BY A REINFORCING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MUCH OF THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE AT TIMES AND
WILL BE SEEN AS MOSTLY BENEFICIAL GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY DRY MAY
AND FIRST HALF OF JUNE. WEAK SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGHING OVER
PORTIONS OF CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW AVERAGE, WITH MOSTLY 90S IN THE DESERTS
AND 60S TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND
AVERAGE AND TRANQUIL OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS WEST OF THE CASCADES, AND 80S
EAST INTO THE INTERIOR.
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