093
FXUS01 KWBC 150757
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 AM EDT THU JUN 15 2023
VALID 12Z THU JUN 15 2023 - 12Z SAT JUN 17 2023
...NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST, AS WELL
AS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY...
...MID-JUNE HEAT WAVE UNDERWAY ACROSS MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE DEEP
SOUTH...
...POOR AIR QUALITY DUE TO CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE FORECAST OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST TODAY...
A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NATION WITH
NUMEROUS TYPES OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE START OF THIS WEEKEND. HEADLINING THE BUSY JUNE
WEATHER PATTERN IS THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY, WITH
SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES ALSO EXTENDING INTO THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH A SHARP DRY LINE AND
LIFTING WARM FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL AID IN PROVIDING
AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERAL DEVELOPING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS, WESTERN OKLAHOMA, AND THE
FAR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO RACE SOUTHEASTWARD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THE SEVERE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE EXPECTED STORMS
INCLUDE HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER, WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 80 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
FURTHER HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
FARTHER EAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND REDEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY WILL
CREATE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER
FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. WITH AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT IN
PLACE FROM THE NEARBY GULF OF MEXICO, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WHILE EXHIBITING SLOW
FORWARD MOTION AT TIMES. THESE FACTORS COMBINED WITH RECENT
RAINFALL SATURATING SOILS ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION COULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASING FLASH FLOOD RISK FROM CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO THE
GEORGIA-FLORIDA BORDER. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION. A FEW STORMS THROUGHOUT
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES
TODAY. THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL NOT CONCLUDE TONIGHT AS ANOTHER
ROUND OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, WHILE
EXTENDING FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS
WELL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY THE
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS A RENEWED THREAT FOR
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. ELSEWHERE, SLOW-MOVING AND LOCALIZED
SEVERE STORMS ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY IMPACT PARTS THE
ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS WYOMING, COLORADO, AND WESTERN KANSAS MAY
INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT SOMEWHAT. THUS, A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF WYOMING AND
ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
IT WOULDN'T BE AN ACTIVE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN WITHOUT OPPRESSIVE
HEAT AND MUCH OF TEXAS AND THE DEEP SOUTH WILL HAVE PLENTY HEADING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES
AND HIGH HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE LONE STAR STATE (OUTSIDE OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE). SULTRY HEAT INDICES UP TO 110 DEGREES WILL
ALSO EXTEND EAST INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND UPPER-90S COULD EXCEED DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES RECORDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, WHERE IT
COULD FEEL AS HOT AS 120 DEGREES. THIS ONGOING SUMMER HEAT WAVE
ISN'T EXPECTED TO LET UP AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO ENDURE SOME MID-JUNE
HEAT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE MID-90S, WITH
HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 110 DEGREES. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS WITHIN
REGIONS IMPACTED BY EXCESSIVE HEAT ARE URGED TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT
SAFETY; SUCH AS STAYING HYDRATED, LIMITING TIME OUTDOORS, AND
CHECKING IN ON ANY VULNERABLE FRIENDS, FAMILY, AND NEIGHBORS.
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOWER 48, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS OVER
THE NORTHEAST, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHWEST WILL OFFER SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NEAR A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY,
BEFORE THE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST AND HAIL THREAT SHIFTS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD
IMPACT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
GREAT LAKES WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE INFLUX OF NEAR-SURFACE
WILDFIRE SMOKE THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST THANKS
TO NORTHERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA. AIR QUALITY ALERTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED THROUGHOUT MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN, WITH SMOKE ALSO
FORECAST TO ENTER PARTS OF IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS TODAY. FOR
AREAS IMPACTED BY REDUCED AIR QUALITY DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE,
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD LIMIT PROLONGED OR HEAVY EXERTION
OUTDOORS.
SNELL
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