715
FXUS06 KWBC 151905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 15 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 25 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN
CANADA. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS ALSO FAVORED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN HAS
BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAVORS CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN
CONUS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70% FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH
A SECONDARY MAXIMUM CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. ELEVATED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND FLORIDA.
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHERE PROBABILITIES
EXCEED 60% FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ODDS ALSO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST U.S. UNDER
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR NORTHERN
ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ONSHORE
FLOW USHERING IN MOIST AIR. ODDS ALSO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LIMITS THE WESTWARD EXTENT
OF THIS MOIST FLOW AND RESULTS IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
SOUTHERN TEXAS, WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND EASTERN ARIZONA. POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER HUDSON BAY ALSO RESULT IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A
SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING OVER ALASKA DURING THE FORECAST
PERIOD, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS,
WHERE NEAR OR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY
WEAKENING OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 29 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AS DEPICTED IN MODEL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN FOR
THE 6-10 PERIOD AND SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE ZONAL FLOW ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER. NONETHELESS, MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CONTINUED
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAT ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES GIVEN A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW
PATTERN.
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO CONTINUED ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70% FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH
A WEAKER SECONDARY MAXIMUM EXCEEDING 50% OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD, PROBABILITIES FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND THE
HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFT TO CALIFORNIA, WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXTEND ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER WESTWARD TO WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MUCH
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MIXED SIGNALS
CONTINUE FOR THE ALASKA REGION FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN FROM THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA.
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES
INTO WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OVERALL ARE LOWER WITH A WEAKER AMPLITUDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. ODDS STILL FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO A
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING
REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. CONTINUED LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED MOVING FROM THE BERING SEA OVER ALASKA, RESULTING IN A
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHICH TILTS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES ON THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET
BY WEAKER ANOMALIES REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720623 - 19980608 - 19980614 - 19650617 - 19750611
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720622 - 19980613 - 19980608 - 19750612 - 19510617
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 21 - 25 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 23 - 29 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH N N ARIZONA B B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS N N CONN B N RHODE IS N N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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