951
FXUS01 KWBC 151932
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
331 PM EDT THU JUN 15 2023
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 16 2023 - 00Z SUN JUN 18 2023
...HEAVY RAINS, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO NORTH FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...
...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES TO CONTINUE IMPACT THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND MID-WEST...
THE VERY ACTIVE LATE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN OF RECENT WEEKS ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE CONUS SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP AS THE
WORK WEEK ENDS AND THE WEEKEND BEGINS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LYING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING. THIS FRONT HAS ALREADY BEEN THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH A CURRENT AREA OF HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING THE
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LEAD AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINS IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING OVER OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, PRESSING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA DURING FRIDAY. A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER IS INDICATING A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHER TEXAS. TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
HAVING THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF OCCURRING.
WHILE ACTIVE WEATHER FOCUSES ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE NATION, A SEPARATE COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS
OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE FROM LARGE SECTIONS OF WYOMING,
NORTHEASTWARD INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH AND NORTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHWARD INTO AREAS FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS,
WHERE RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE LEAD TO HIGHER THAN AVERAGE STREAM
FLOWS AND SOIL MOISTURE. THIS FRONT AND THE ACCOMPANYING RAINS
WILL PUSH FARTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY, BRINGING HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THESE AREAS HAVE NOT SEEN AS MUCH PRECIPITATION OF LATE
AS AREAS FARTHER TO THE WEST. THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE CHANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING, ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE
WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLORADO ON SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN THE RECENT WET CONDITIONS.
WHILE LARGE PORTIONS OF THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION WILL BE WET
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE OPPOSITE WILL BE TRUE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHERE A HEAT WAVE SHOWS NOT SIGNS OF LETTING UP GOING INTO THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 100S ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AFFECTING THE CITIES OF AUSTIN, SAN ANTONIO, HOUSTON,
CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
LOUISIANA, AFFECTING BATON ROUGE AND NEW ORLEANS. HEAT ADVISORIES
AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE
REGIONS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE SO GOING THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HEAT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AMPLIFYING FROM THE LOWER LAKES INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN CANADIAN WILDFIRES SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, MID-WEST, OHIO VALLEY,
MID-ATLANTIC AND TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVER THE 24 HOURS.
THIS AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK STATE INTO
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. FOR THE EASTERN LAKES REGION INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THESE RAINS WILL BE MUCH WELCOMED AS A VERY DRY
SPRING HAS LEAD TO AN INTENSIFYING DROUGHT.
ORAVEC
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