709
FXUS01 KWBC 160734
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EDT FRI JUN 16 2023
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 16 2023 - 12Z SUN JUN 18 2023
...HEAVY RAIN, FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, GULF/EAST COAST...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA; CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHWEST...
...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, MIDWEST AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST...
A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
JUNETEENTH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TODAY. THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS
WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN
RATES OF 1-2"/HR COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. SLIGHT RISKS ARE ALSO
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST TODAY WHERE WIND DAMAGE, HAIL POTENTIAL AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE ALL POSSIBLE OVER THOSE AREAS. A COMPLEX OF STORMS
MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PROGRESS
INTO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND AND HAIL DAMAGE ARE LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS FROM THIS
COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT SUBSIDES ON SATURDAY WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GULF COAST. TWO DISTINCT
SURFACE FRONTS, ONE DRAPED ALONG THE DEEP SOUTH, THE OTHER MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON SATURDAY. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, SOUTHERN KANSAS, OKLAHOMA AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY, WHERE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING GUSTS AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE. STRONG CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIATE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CAUSE WIND DAMAGE/HAIL OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL MISSISSIPPI,
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE
GULF.
A VERY STABLE AND STATIONARY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND MEXICO FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THIS
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE GENERATING RECORD WARMTH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AT THE VERY LEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
100S TO 110S WILL REPRESENT A 15-25 DEGREE ANOMALY FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER THAT AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FRONT
RANGE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE GREAT PLAINS SYSTEM. THIS WILL LEAD
TO ANOMALOUSLY COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS/ROCKIES TODAY AND ON SATURDAY. VERY DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND.
ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST AND CANADIAN MARITIME WILL CIRCULATE CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE OVER THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
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