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FXUS06 KWBC 161902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 16 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 26 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THE SOUTHEAST AND BROAD RIDGING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND EASTERN
CANADA. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS ALSO FAVORED OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THIS PATTERN HAS
BEEN QUITE PERSISTENT AND FAVORS CONTINUED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60% FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AND EXCEEDING 70% OVER PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY INCREASE
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (EXCEPT FOR NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON WHERE ABOVE -NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED). THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHERE PROBABILITIES
EXCEED 70% FOR SOME LOCATIONS. ODDS ALSO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS UNDER WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
THE CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL.
THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH ONSHORE FLOW USHERING IN MOIST AIR. ODDS ALSO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND MID-ATLANTIC WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING PROVIDING INSTABILITY AND SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANOMALOUS RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS LIMITS THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THIS MOIST FLOW AND RESULTS IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS, SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO, AND EASTERN
ARIZONA. MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING
OVER ALASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHERE NEAR OR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY
WEAKENING OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 30 2023
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AS DEPICTED IN MODEL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN FOR
THE 6-10 PERIOD AND SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE ZONAL FLOW ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER. NONETHELESS, MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CONTINUED
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST AND BROAD RIDGING
OVER EASTERN ALASKA AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAT ARE QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES GIVEN A LESS
AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN.
PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND HUDSON BAY LEAD TO CONTINUED ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONUS. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60% FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY MAXIMUM EXCEEDING 50% OVER THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO
EXTEND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH NEGATIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD,
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFT TO CALIFORNIA, WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXTEND ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AS WEAK
TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. MIXED SIGNALS CONTINUE FOR THE ALASKA REGION
FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD BUT THE PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA AND ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA,
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES
INTO WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OVERALL ARE LOWER WITH A WEAKER AMPLITUDE
OF THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. ODDS STILL FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF SOUTH TEXAS AND MUCH OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH
PERSISTENT RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO.
CONTINUED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED MOVING FROM THE BERING SEA OVER
ALASKA, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHICH TILTS TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES ON THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET
BY WEAKER ANOMALIES REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19650618 - 19720625 - 19980607 - 19510614 - 19630609
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19720624 - 19650618 - 19980611 - 19630608 - 19750611
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 22 - 26 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B N ARIZONA B B COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 24 - 30 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A A NEVADA B N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N B ARIZONA B B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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