073
FXUS01 KWBC 170801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 17 2023
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 17 2023 - 12Z MON JUN 19 2023
...VERY RAINY AND STORMY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...
...RECORD SETTING HEAT POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO EASTERN
LOUISIANA; CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST...
...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, MIDWEST, NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE
ATTENDANT QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AND SEVERE WEATHER. AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
EFFECT OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS, OKLAHOMA AND THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF OVER 70
KNOTS AND HAILSTONES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT COULD REACH THE ARKLATEX
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
FLORIDA WHERE A BROAD SLIGHT RISK IS IN EFFECT. THERE ARE FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA'S CENTRAL GULF COAST,
INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND POINTS NORTH, TODAY AS SUBSTANTIAL GULF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS AROUND A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE REGION. BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THIS AREA, WHICH IS WHY A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
EFFECT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREATS SHIFT INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SHIFTS INTO THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WHILE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM
AROUND THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI, NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
ON SUNDAY WITH DAMAGING GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY SENSIBLE THREAT
FROM THESE STORMS. ISOLATED LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
MISSOURI, EASTERN ARKANSAS, WESTERN TENNESSEE, MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA SUPPORTS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING FOR THOSE AREAS ON SUNDAY.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN TEXAS AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S AND LOWS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS TO THE LOUISIANA COAST
WILL LIKELY TIE OR BREAK RECORDS, AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT CRITICAL FIRE
RISK TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR FIRES ON
SUNDAY. SOME CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
KEBEDE
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