133
FXUS01 KWBC 172030
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
429 PM EDT SAT JUN 17 2023
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 18 2023 - 00Z TUE JUN 20 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND GENERALLY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS/SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF COAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, CREATING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE. THE EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT ENDS
ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ALSO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE. THE
EXCESSIVE RAIN MOVES WESTWARD ON SUNDAY.
MOREOVER, FRONTS AND A DRYLINE ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL
CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF HAIL TWO
INCHES OR GREATER AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS
OR GREATER OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ON SUNDAY, THE FRONTS CONSOLIDATE AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER EASTERN
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND SOUTHEAST FROM
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHER, THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
TENNESSEE VALLEY, CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. FURTHERMORE,
THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF
65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE AREA.
ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DECREES TO A
MARGINAL RISK OVER THE REGION.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND
TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF OVERNIGHT MUCH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF COAST.
ELSEWHERE, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST,
CREATING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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