135
FXUS01 KWBC 180652
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2023
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 18 2023 - 12Z TUE JUN 20 2023
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL PROMOTE DANGEROUS HEAT, FIRES,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TODAY, AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL THREATEN THESE AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALSO FAVOR A FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHERE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY
FOCUS AROUND A PAIR OF QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND
SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON JUNETEENTH WHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OF THE CAROLINAS AS
WELL AS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE CENTRAL/FLORIDA GULF COAST ON MONDAY AS WELL WHERE
DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ELSEWHERE, THE MEXICAN RIDGE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE CONTINUATION OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST. TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S
WILL NOT ONLY RIVAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE MARKS FOR THE NATION,
BUT MAY TIE OR BRAKE EXISTING RECORDS. THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S, WHICH IS WHY THERE
ARE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE ACROSS
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. CONTINUED WARM, DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK AREA OVER
SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. THE DEEPENING WESTERN
TROUGH, WILL INTRODUCE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF
THE WEST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
RAINY/CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY OVER THE COMING DAYS DESPITE BEING FAR
LESS DENSE THAN WHAT THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC EXPERIENCED A
COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO.
KEBEDE
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