517
FXUS01 KWBC 182015
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2023
VALID 00Z MON JUN 19 2023 - 00Z WED JUN 21 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN OHIO, TENNESSEE, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY EVENING THAT WILL MIGRATE EASTWARD TO SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS/CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
SUNDAY; SIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST/CENTRAL GULF COAST ON MONDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN GULF COAST...
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN OHIO
VALLEYS AND A WEAK FRONT IN MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY, PLUS HIGH MOISTURE VALUES, WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, CENTRAL
GULF COAST, AND SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, CENTRAL GULF COAST, AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, A FRONT OVER LOUISIANA, MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA, AND THE
FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE
AREA.
ON MONDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST,
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD, THE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE EAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
BY TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THEREFORE, ON
TUESDAY, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE
MOST VULNERABLE. ADDITIONALLY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
REDUCES TO A MARGINAL RISK OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, HIGH TEMPERATURES, AND
TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF COAST.
ELSEWHERE, A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST,
CREATING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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