259
FXUS01 KWBC 190725
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
324 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2023
VALID 12Z MON JUN 19 2023 - 12Z WED JUN 21 2023
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
GULF COAST, SOUTHEAST AND CAROLINAS...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FROM
TEXAS TO LOUISIANA...
..CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
A STALLED-OUT UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE HEAVY RAINFALL AND
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF
THE CONUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE, JUNETEENTH WILL BE
STORMY AND RAINY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST THIS YEAR. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST TODAY,
WHERE 1-3" OF RAINFALL IS LIKELY. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS SURFACE TROUGHING, THE PRESENCE OF A
NEARBY SURFACE WAVE, THUNDERSTORMS AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL
SUPPORT 24 HOUR TOTALS IN THE 2-4" RANGE. OF COURSE, WITH ALL OF
THIS RAIN COMES THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. THUS, A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL
MISSISSIPPI, ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THERE'S ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ALSO ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR A SWATH COVERING THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA, GEORGIA AND FLORIDA TODAY.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST, MIDWEST, MID-ATLANTIC AS
WELL TODAY.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY.
FORTUNATELY, RAIN RATES WILL BE LOW SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL
BE MARGINAL. INCREASED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE EAST OF THE FRONT
WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO SHORT-LIVED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG OUTFLOW
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION. THE PATTERN FROM JUNETEENTH WILL MORE OR LESS PERSIST
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY, BUT THIS TIME THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SHIFT AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA WHERE BETWEEN 1-3" MAY ACCUMULATE. ANOTHER
DAY OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS IS IN STORE FOR
TUESDAY AS 1-3" IS FORECAST TO ACCUMULATE FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SOUTHEAST.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO WILL AMPLIFY OVER TEXAS, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE BUT ALSO AS
FAR EAST AS LOUISIANA. WIDESPREAD HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE TIED OR BROKEN OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STATIONED OVER HEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
100S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUED
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES THAT HAVE BEEN IN
EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. VERY DRY,
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRES
ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEBEDE
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