672
FXUS06 KWBC 191902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 19 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST
AND THE EASTERN CONUS AND BROAD RIDGING CENTERED NEAR SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA AND
EASTERN CANADA. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS ALSO FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THE SOUTHWEST.
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTERN CANADA LEAD TO
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXCEED 80% FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS. INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, SUPPORTED BY GEFS AND ECMWF CALIBRATED REFORECAST TOOLS.
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST WILL LIKELY INCREASE CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION OVER THIS REGION, RESULTING IN A LIKELIHOOD OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ODDS ALSO FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS UNDER TROUGHING ALOFT. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
ALASKA WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH ONSHORE
FLOW USHERING IN MOIST AIR. ODDS ALSO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PROVIDING INSTABILITY
AND SURFACE FLOW PROVIDING MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ANOMALOUS
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LIMITS THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS MOIST FLOW
AND RESULTS IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MODEL ENSEMBLES DEPICT A SERIES OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
MOVING OVER ALASKA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHERE NEAR OR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY
WEAKENING OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2023
TTHE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AS DEPICTED IN MODEL ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS SHOWN FOR
THE 6-10 PERIOD AND SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS MORE ZONAL FLOW ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER. NONETHELESS, MODEL GUIDANCE MAINTAINS CONTINUED
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST AND THE EASTERN CONUS AND BROAD RIDGING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, EASTERN CANADA, AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RESULTS
IN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD THAT ARE
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
PROBABILITIES GIVEN A LESS AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN.
PERSISTENT ANOMALOUS RIDGING LEAD TO CONTINUED ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS. HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70% FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO EXTEND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST COAST
WEAKENING AND SHIFTING WESTWARD, PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE REDUCED RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AND SHIFT TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALSO CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AS WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE REGION. THE
PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES WITH BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
MUCH OF ALASKA (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ALASKA WHERE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED), SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION PATTERN DEPICTED IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD CONTINUES
INTO WEEK-2, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES OVERALL ARE LOWER WITH A WEAKER AMPLITUDE
OF THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. ODDS STILL FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WITH CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO A
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH PERSISTENT RIDGING REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHWEST. CONTINUED LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE DEPICTED
MOVING FROM THE BERING SEA OVER ALASKA, RESULTING IN A TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, WHICH TILTS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES ON THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET
BY WEAKER ANOMALIES REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980615 - 19980625 - 19840601 - 20010611 - 19850624
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19850624 - 19980623 - 19980615 - 20010612 - 19840601
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 25 - 29 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 27 - JUL 03, 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA N N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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