577
FXUS06 KWBC 201902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 20 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - 30 2023
THE GFS, ECWMF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY REGARDING THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY’S MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE PREDICTED PRIMARY LONGWAVE FEATURES INCLUDE 5-DAY MEAN TROUGHS
AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE VICINITY OF THE BERING SEA,
THE FAR WESTERN CONUS, AND THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. MEAN RIDGES AND
ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND WESTERN CANADA/SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE VICINITY OF WASHINGTON STATE IN
PROXIMITY TO THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS FAR WESTERN CANADA, AND
PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ODDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER OHIO, AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80%
OVER TEXAS. THE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS
SUPPORTED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED AND REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AND/OR POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. FOR THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA, THE
GEFS REFORECAST TOOL DEPICTS ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES, WHEREAS THE ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN REFORECAST TOOLS INDICATE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE VARIOUS REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS (LESS SO WITH THE
COOLER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN) ALSO DEPICT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHEAST, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
JUST WEST OF THAT REGION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ENHANCED OVER
FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF ALASKA, INFLUENCED BY A NEARBY MID-LEVEL RIDGE. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE
IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS.
THERE ARE ELEVATED ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL ROCKIES, CONSISTENT WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER THAT AREA. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
OHIO VALLEY COINCIDENT WITH, AND WEST OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD TO WASHINGTON, CONTINUING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, MINNESOTA, THE GREAT LAKES REGION, OHIO VALLEY,
APPALACHIANS AND ATLANTIC COAST FROM MAINE TO GEORGIA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY
REFORECAST PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST OF ALASKA, COINCIDENT WITH AND EAST OF A
PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES,
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, AND NEIGHBORING PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS. GEFS REFORECAST PRECIPITATION DEPICTS THE FAVORED AREA OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION JUST NOTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN CORN BELT, AND EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA. BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ALSO ENHANCED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
TROPICAL STORM BRET (JUN 20, 11AM AST) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS OVER THE LOW LATITUDES OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN AND THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THIS TIME, IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE OR IF BRET
WILL HAVE ANY INFLUENCE ON THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND THEREFORE REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT WILDCARD IN THIS 6-10 DAY PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, BASED
UPON VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS, AND GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 04, 2023
THE GFS, ECWMF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN DURING WEEK-2. SIMILAR TO THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY CIRCULATION PATTERN,
THE WEEK-2 FORECAST FEATURES MEAN TROUGHS AND NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE 500-HPA
HEIGHTS INDICATED OVER THE VICINITY OF THE BERING SEA, THE FAR WESTERN CONUS,
AND APPROXIMATELY THE EASTERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. MEAN RIDGES AND ABOVE
AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, AND WESTERN CANADA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND THE 0Z/6Z
DETERMINISTIC GFS SOLUTIONS TO EXPAND WESTWARD, APPROACHING ITS SUMMERTIME MEAN
CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT OF
THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN EARLY SUMMER IS INDICATIVE OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST MONSOON SEASON.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70% OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
EXPANSIVE AREA OF RELATIVE WARMTH IS CONSISTENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND/OR
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AS WELL AS A WEAKENING WEST COAST 500-HPA
TROUGH. EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST. ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS ALSO FAVORED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK (AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS) AND FAR NORTHEASTERN ALASKA (PROXIMITY
TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS). BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND
AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, BASED ON THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION
FORECAST, AND BIAS-CORRECTED TEMPERATURES FROM THE GEFS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS. A SMALL-SCALE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED OVER THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY, BASED ON A SUBJECTIVE CONSENSUS OF VARIOUS TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE FAVORED FROM NEAR THE CASCADE MOUNTAIN
RANGE OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS,
UPPER AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, OHIO VALLEY, UPPER TENNESSEE VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND ATLANTIC COAST
STATES FROM MAINE TO NORTHERN GEORGIA. THIS IS BASED ON RAW PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND FROM THE REFORECAST
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED OVER MOST OF
ALASKA IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH, NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS, AND PREDICTED WIDESPREAD ONSHORE FLOW. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FROM THE CALIFORNIA SIERRAS EASTWARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, MOST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS, AND ADJOINING PARTS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS WELL SUPPORTED BY THE AUTO AND
CONSOLIDATED PRECIPITATION TOOLS, AND THE PROXIMITY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS, OFFSET BY
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980625 - 19980616 - 19620704 - 19850625 - 19890626
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980624 - 19890626 - 19850625 - 19980618 - 19750618
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 26 - 30 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON N A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 04, 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N A NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page