166
FXUS01 KWBC 210739
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2023
VALID 12Z WED JUN 21 2023 - 12Z FRI JUN 23 2023
...SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF
THE GREAT PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...
..RECORD BREAKING HEAT WAVE PERSISTS IN TEXAS
A MOSTLY STATIONARY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL ALLOW
FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO REMAIN FOCUSED OVER DESIGNATED PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON THIS SUMMER SOLSTICE DAY.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER.
LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE THREATS
GENERATED BY ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. BROAD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO ADVECT INTO
THE PLAINS TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP OVER ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS, WHERE THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING
TO FLASH FLOODING. THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HOT SPOT
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS AN UPPER LOW SPINS OVERHEAD. GULF MOISTURE
WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND WILL INTERACT WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN OVER SATURATED
SOILS COULD LEAD TO RUNOFF, HENCE THE INCLUSION OF ANOTHER SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING FOR MUCH OF
THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHING THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
THURSDAY, WITH SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY TURNING SEVERE AND
PRODUCING HAIL AS WELL AS STRONG WIND GUSTS. PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO ARE UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THERE.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING,
WESTERN NEBRASKA/KANSAS AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WHERE 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS COULD CAUSE
RUNOFF PROBLEMS. WHILE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY, THE CONCERNS AROUND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WILL NOT. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO
FLASH FLOODING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST, CAROLINAS
AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OF
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. WHILE
SOME OF THIS RAINFALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA WILL BE BENEFICIAL, RAIN
OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE COULD CAUSE INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING.
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
RESPONSE WILL BE A WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT RECORD BREAKING HEAT
WAVE ACROSS TEXAS. AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S AND 110S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE DAY FOLLOWED BY LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S OVERNIGHT WILL MAKE FOR OPPRESSIVE
OUTDOOR CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. REPEATED AND LENGTHY EXPOSURE TO HEAT CAN
INCREASE THE RISK OF HEALTH IMPACTS, INCLUDING HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
HEAT STROKE.
KEBEDE
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