984
FXUS06 KWBC 221902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU JUNE 22 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2023
THE GFS, ECWMF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH YESTERDAY’S
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE PREDICTED PRIMARY LONGWAVE FEATURES INCLUDE 5-DAY MEAN
TROUGHS OVER THE VICINITY OF THE BERING SEA, AND THE EAST COAST OF THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). BELOW AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEAN RIDGES AND ABOVE
AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS, WESTERN CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND (THE
LATTER BEING ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF
NEWFOUNDLAND).
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER CALIFORNIA, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND MINNESOTA
IN PROXIMITY TO THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN CANADA, AND/OR
PREDICTED ABOVE AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ODDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXCEED 80% OVER TEXAS. THE WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IS SUPPORTED BY THE BIAS-CORRECTED AND REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEANS, AND IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE VARIOUS REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS
DEPICT RESIDUAL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MAINE, WHICH IS CONSISTENT GIVEN
THE FORECAST MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THAT REGION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF
ALASKA, INFLUENCED BY A NEARBY MID-LEVEL RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF ALASKA IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
BELOW AVERAGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS. THERE ARE NOMINAL ODDS OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE VICINITY OF WYOMING AS INDICATED BY THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION TOOL. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, EASTERN CORN BELT/OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION COINCIDENT WITH, AND WEST OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND MODESTLY BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN,
APPROXIMATELY THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE ROCKIES, THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST, THE APPALACHIANS, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES FROM MAINE
SOUTHWESTWARD TO GEORGIA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATED
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED OVER MOST
OF ALASKA, COINCIDENT WITH AND EAST OF A PREDICTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH RAW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY OUTPUT FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
MEANS, AND REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, MUCH OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA, AND OVER FLORIDA, UNDER
MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND/OR MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS.
TROPICAL STORM BRET (JUN 22, 2PM AST) IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA BEFORE DISSIPATING IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. WELL TO THE EAST OF BRET IS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 (TD4) WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
STORM AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO 3-4 DAYS FROM NOW. THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO RUN INTO AN UNFAVORABLY HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND WEAKEN.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, BASED
UPON VERY GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE DYNAMICAL 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS, AND GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2023
THE GFS, ECWMF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN DURING WEEK-2. SIMILAR TO THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY CIRCULATION PATTERN,
THE WEEK-2 FORECAST FEATURES MEAN TROUGHS OVER THE VICINITY OF THE BERING SEA,
AND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. MEAN RIDGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS, AND WESTERN CANADA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS IS FORECAST
BY THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND APPROACH ITS SUMMERTIME
MEAN CLIMATOLOGICAL POSITION NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, INDICATIVE OF THE
APPROACHING SOUTHWEST MONSOON SEASON. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALSO FORECAST
THAT THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE
TROUGH NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE MANUAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT BLEND PREDICTS
HEIGHTS WILL BE CLOSE TO LONG-TERM AVERAGES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
DURING WEEK-2.
DURING WEEK-2, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, WITH MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES EXCEEDING 60% OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND NEW MEXICO. THIS
WIDESPREAD AREA OF FAVORED RELATIVE WARMTH EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS, THOUGH THE CANADIAN COUNTERPART
DEPICTS WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS AND HAS
THEREFORE BEEN DISCOUNTED. THE WARMER SOLUTION FAVORED BY THE GEFS AND ECMWF
REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH ALONG
THE WEST COAST, AND PREDICTED 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CLOSE TO ZERO OVER MOST
OF THE LOWER 48 STATES. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE
ROCKIES. THERE ARE ENHANCED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES OVER
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND (AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS) AND OVER FAR
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA IN PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST AREAS OF ALASKA
SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE, BASED ON THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION
FORECAST, AND MOST BIAS-CORRECTED AND REFORECAST TEMPERATURES FROM THE VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE MEANS. PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60% OVER A
SMALL AREA CENTERED ON COOK INLET. NOMINAL TILTS TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE DEPICTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, JUST WEST OF WHERE A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE IN WEEK-2.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED FROM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE EASTWARD ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC REGION, OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS, AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS BASED ON RAW
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS AND FROM THE
REFORECAST PRECIPITATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED
OVER MOST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, NEVADA, MUCH OF THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND SOUTHERN TEXAS, UNDER MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND/OR
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY DEGRADED IN THE PAST TWO
WEEKS, WHICH WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. OVER MOST OF ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN
PROXIMITY TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH, NEAR AVERAGE 500-HPA HEIGHTS, AND PREDICTED
WIDESPREAD ONSHORE FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, BASED ON
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS 500-HPA HEIGHT MODELS, OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES
AMONG THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: ANTHONY A
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980626 - 19890626 - 19760603 - 19850626 - 20070614
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890626 - 19980625 - 19760603 - 19850627 - 19980620
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 28 - JUL 02, 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK B A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 30 - JUL 06, 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING N A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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