465
FXUS01 KWBC 221938
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2023
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 23 2023 - 00Z SUN JUN 25 2023
...SOUTH-CENTRAL HEAT WAVE PERSISTS FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
..WET AND COOL START TO SUMMER CONTINUES FOR THE EAST COAST
A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONTINUING
THE HEAT WAVE THAT HAS PLAGUED THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THIS MONTH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN, SOUTHERN, AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL RANGE BETWEEN 105 TO 110. HIGHS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S, BUT DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HEAT INDICES OF 105-115, LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 120.
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE.
IN ADDITION, ANOMALOUSLY WARM, NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BRING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT NIGHT. A
SOUTHWARD SAGGING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION HAS
BROUGHT SOME BRIEF RELIEVE TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS AS WELL
AS OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BUT THIS WILL
BE SHORT LIVED, AS THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK NORTHEASTWARD
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS SOARING BACK INTO THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S. THE
HOT CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH INCOMING STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN
ALOFT AS WELL AS LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE
PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TO THE NORTH, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, PROVIDING LIFT ALOFT AND ENCOURAGING
LEE CYCLOGENESIS AT THE SURFACE, HELPING TO BETTER ORGANIZE A LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES OVER THE
REGION. THE UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL FORCING ALONG THE ORGANIZING
FRONTS, AS WELL AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WILL COMBINE TO PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE ARE
SLIGHT RISKS (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED, AND THE THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AMONG A BROADER SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) COVERING MUCH OF THE HIGH PLAINS. MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT
CAPE FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, AS WELL AS ISOLATED
TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AS WELL AS SOME DAMAGING WINDS.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS WELL AS A LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THE
START OF SUMMER AND SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES UP INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT DRY ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP ANY FLASH FLOOD
RELATED RISK LOW. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN GULF COAST, WHERE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE AND CLUSTERING
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER A REGION THAT HAS SEEN MUCH
MORE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S
IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOW TO MID-80S
IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST. ON THE OTHER HAND, OUTSIDE OF
THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW, THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. IN THE WEST, SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE
MOSTLY LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WILL SIMILARLY BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE REGION, WITH MOSTLY 70S AND LOW 80S EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S.
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