805
FXUS01 KWBC 230804
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2023
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 23 2023 - 12Z SUN JUN 25 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY SATURDAY, AND A SECOND AREA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS...
A FRONT OVER THE PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF MONTANA, WYOMING, SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, NORTHERN PLAINS, AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL
STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, A SECOND AREA OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND GEORGIA ASSOCIATED WITH A
STALLED FRONT. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF WYOMING, SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
NEBRASKA WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
AREA. THEREFORE, THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN
ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT
OF TWO-INCH OR GREATER HAIL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF
65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING.
FURTHERMORE, A DRYLINE AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
IN ADDITION, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ENDS OVER FLORIDA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE THREAT CONTINUES OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHER, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER PARTS
OF IOWA AND MISSOURI. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS BY SUNDAY. THE ENERGY, WEAK FRONT, AND
DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, THE ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST, LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
AND MID-ATLANTIC. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA AND
THE GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
ON SATURDAY.
FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, WESTERN
TEXAS, AND NEW MEXICO, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT, HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page