707
FXUS06 KWBC 231951
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI JUNE 23 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 03, 2023
THE GEFS, ECWMF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT TODAY REGARDING THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH
AMERICAN DOMAIN DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, AND SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WITH
YESTERDAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE PREDICTED LONGWAVE CIRCULATION PATTERN
DEPICTED IN THE MANUAL BLEND INCLUDES A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS, AND A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN CANADA. A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS IN THE 5-DAY MEAN PATTERN, THAT IS FORECAST TO DEAMPLIFY OVER THE
EAST COAST AND AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE PERIOD.
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER NEW ENGLAND, ASSOCIATED
WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS, AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA, UNDER ABOVE
AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT PLAINS, THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTED BY BIAS-CORRECTED
AND REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MODELS,
AND IS GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. A PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTERED OVER TEXAS IS
LESS AMPLIFIED IN TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS, REDUCING THE PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION FROM YESTERDAY’S FORECAST. THE
CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST TEMPERATURE TOOLS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT A
FORECAST FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A SMALL AREA OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, AS PREDICTED BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOL. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION UNDER A PREDICTED BROAD TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, UNDER THE PREDICTED
TROUGH AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. WEAK PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, AS INDICATED
IN MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
IDAHO ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS FROM NORTHERN TEXAS TO THE CANADIAN
BORDER, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING THE GULF COAST REGION, ASSOCIATED WITH A
PREDICTED TROUGH. NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WEST
COAST AND THE SOUTHWEST, UNDER THE PREDICTED RIDGE OR POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST REGION, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE STATE OF ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR FAR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS, UNDER AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, AND GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY SMALL
AREAS OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2023
THE GEFS, ECWMF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
TODAY ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN
DOMAIN DURING WEEK-2, THAT IS SIMILAR TO THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY CIRCULATION
PATTERN, BUT WITH GENERALLY WEAKER ANOMALIES. THE WEEK-2 MODEL FORECASTS
PREDICT A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA, A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
NORTHEAST, ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS UNDER
THE PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE CONUS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH
PREDICTED RIDGES OVER THE WEST AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC AND SLIGHTLY POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE
DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS ARE CONSISTENT, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FROM PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO
VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST, WHERE MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOW
GREATER UNCERTAINTY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
WEST COAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS OF ALASKA, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.
DURING WEEK-2, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS REGION AND CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, OUTSIDE THE GULF COAST,
SUPPORTED BY THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND ASSOCIATED WITH
A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA,
AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST, UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: NEAR AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, BASED ON
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET
BY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19760604 - 19890626 - 19850628 - 19980626 - 19990608
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19760604 - 19890626 - 19990606 - 19750627 - 19980625
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 29 - JUL 03, 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE A A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 01 - 07 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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