140
FXUS01 KWBC 240752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2023
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 24 2023 - 12Z MON JUN 26 2023
....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND NEW MEXICO...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO
VALLEY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
MONDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA, MINNESOTA, AND
WISCONSIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE FRONT OVER PARTS OF IOWA AND MISSOURI WILL CREATE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
FURTHERMORE, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
FURTHER, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EASTWARD AND
CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF INDIANA, OHIO, KENTUCKY, AND TENNESSEE ON
SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY MONDAY. THE
ENERGY AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
AND NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE SATURDAY EVENING. ON SUNDAY, THE ENERGY
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC.
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES AND A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, CONTINUING INTO
MONDAY.
FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, WESTERN
TEXAS, AND NEW MEXICO, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT, HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER SOUTHERN/WESTERN
TEXAS, SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO, EASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA.
LASTLY, SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE OHIO VALLEY PROMPTING AIR
QUALITY WARNINGS OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page