815
FXUS01 KWBC 241949
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2023
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 25 2023 - 00Z TUE JUN 27 2023
...OPPRESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. THIS WEEKEND, EXPANDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY...
...RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME FLASH FLOODING MOVES FROM THE
MIDWEST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
MONDAY...
...RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS MUCH OF
THE WEST SEES BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL
CONTINUE AS AN ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO/TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL
RANGE FORM THE LOW 100S FOR EAST TEXAS TO UPPER 100S/LOW 110S FOR
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER, HIGHER HUMIDITY
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 110-115
DEGREE RANGE FOR MUCH OF EAST TEXAS. MORE DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE, WITH
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING WARM LOWS PROVIDING ABSOLUTELY NO RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO SPREAD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWESTWARD, WITH HIGHS OVER 110 FORECAST FOR
SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FOR MOST OF THE
EAST COAST SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION DISSIPATES. ANOTHER
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN UP UP OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. FURTHER WEST, AN ORGANIZING LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVES EASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME FLASH
FLOODING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EAST COAST. RICH GULF
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
VERY STRONG CAPE AS A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE AND INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WITH A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN ANTICIPATION OF THE MIX OF
SOME SUPERCELLS AS WELL AS MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINES OF
STORMS, WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS IN ADDITION TO
SOME LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE RICH MOISTURE WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 1/4) IN PLACE AS CLUSTERS OF
STORMS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TOTALS, BUT PROGRESSIVE
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL EXTENT OF THE THREAT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN TO MUCH OF THE EAST COAST ON MONDAY
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH PORTIONS OF THE
AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4).
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TOTALS OF 1-3" OVER PROGRESSIVELY WETTER SOILS
GIVEN THE RECENT UPWARD TREND IN RAIN THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY LEAD
TO SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. STRONG CAPE OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME MORE
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE. FORECAST HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. HOTTER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL FOLLOW THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE GREAT LAKES.
ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
PLAINS/WEST WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES UP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. LINGERING MOISTURE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
AVERAGE, WITH SOME AREAS AS MUCH AS 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
CLOUDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO LOW
80S FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING
OVER THE WEST COAST WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN, WITH 60S TO
LOW 70S FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND UPPER-70S TO MID 80S FOR THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE GREAT BASIN. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE I-5
URBAN CORRIDOR AND MID-80S FOR THE INTERIOR.
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