249
FXUS01 KWBC 250802
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
402 AM EDT SUN JUN 25 2023
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 25 2023 - 12Z TUE JUN 27 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON SUNDAY AND OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH/WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN TEXAS, NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS,
LOUISIANA, AND MISSISSIPPI...
..AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, SOUTHEAST
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
ENHANCED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT
OF EF2 TO EF5 TORNADOS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THEREFORE, THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE
RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
FURTHER, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EASTWARD AND
CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT OF TWO-INCH OR
GREATER HAIL OVER PARTS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA AND CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INCREASES ON MONDAY
OVER PARTS OF PENNSYLVANIA, MARYLAND, DELAWARE, VIRGINIA, AND
NORTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES AND A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY, CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY.
UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES AND A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURES NOT
COOLING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT, HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WATCHES/WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER MOST OF TEXAS, SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO/ARIZONA, SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, LOUISIANA, ARKANSAS,
MISSISSIPPI, AND WESTERN TENNESSEE.
LASTLY, WILDFIRE SMOKE IN CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROMPTING AIR QUALITY
WARNINGS OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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