040
FXUS01 KWBC 251945
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EDT SUN JUN 25 2023
VALID 00Z MON JUN 26 2023 - 00Z WED JUN 28 2023
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY FOR THE EAST COAST WITH
THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
MID-ATLANTIC...
...OPPRESSIVE HEAT WAVE SHOWS NO SIGNS OF LETTING UP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S....
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WEST...
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW
ENGLAND AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS FOR MID-SUMMER AND RICH MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND SOME POTENTIALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.
A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE CONDITIONS APPEAR MOST
FAVORABLE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THE REGION FOR AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5).
ROBUST DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO STRONG CAPE AND VIGOROUS STORM
DEVELOPMENT, WHILE SUFFICIENT UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION. CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT, THOUGH SOME HAIL AND A TORNADO ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S IN THE
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW 90S TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
HIGHS FALLING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AFTER THE SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE NORTH
OF THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHERE
HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S. COOLER TEMPERATURES
HAVE ALSO FOLLOWED THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT WAVE IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. SHOWS NO SIGNS
OF LETTING UP AS A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE.
WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO AND ACROSS MOST OF TEXAS AS TEMPERATURES
SOAR ONCE AGAIN INTO THE 100S. A DUALITY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
DRIVER OF THE DANGEROUS HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS, WITH HIGHER AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERTS AND WEST TEXAS AND LOWER AIR
TEMPERATURES BUT HIGHER HUMIDITY AND HEAT INDICES IN EAST TEXAS,
BOTH CONTRIBUTING TO A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES,
ESPECIALLY AS THE LONGEVITY OF THE HEAT WAVE INCREASES. SOME DAILY
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE
BOTH DAYS. IN ADDITION, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ABNORMALLY
WARM, AT RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LEVELS, PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION, A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES A BIT MONDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEFORE THE HEAT
WAVE BEGINS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. GUSTY WINDS AND
VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO LEAD TO A CRITICAL RISK
OF FIRE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, LIFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
WILL SPARK DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
AND SPREAD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. LINGERING HIGH
SURFACE MOISTURE EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST, WITH 60S AND LOW 70S ALONG THE WEST
COAST, MID-80S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS, AND 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO/ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WITH 70S IN THE URBAN I-5 CORRIDOR AND MID- TO UPPER 80S IN THE
INTERIOR.
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