715
FXUS01 KWBC 260751
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2023
VALID 12Z MON JUN 26 2023 - 12Z WED JUN 28 2023
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER THE SOUTHWEST,
SOUTHERN TEXAS, NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA, AND
MISSISSIPPI...
..AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST, SOUTHEAST
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY, THE
BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF MARYLAND, DELAWARE, VIRGINIA, AND NORTH CAROLINA. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A THREAT OF TWO-INCH OR GREATER HAIL OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND WESTERN NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE, PENNSYLVANIA, MARYLAND,
DELAWARE, VIRGINIA, AND NORTH CAROLINA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN
WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN
AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ADDITIONALLY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF WYOMING, SOUTH DAKOTA, AND NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A THREAT OF TWO-INCH OR GREATER HAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER THE EAST COAST AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINA
COAST FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, A FEW TORNADOES, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF
HAIL.
MOREOVER, THE ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
FURTHER, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES SLIGHTLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO, THE
THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES SLIGHTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES AND A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY, CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURES NOT
COOLING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT, HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER MOST OF TEXAS, SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/ARIZONA, EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS, MISSISSIPPI, AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
LASTLY, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PROMPTING AIR QUALITY
WARNINGS OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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