931
FXUS06 KWBC 261906
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 26 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 06 2023
THE GEFS, ECWMF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, DISPLAYING A SLOW EVOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY’S MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE LONGWAVE CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE MANUAL BLEND PREDICTS A
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, AND A RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN THE 5-DAY MEAN
CIRCULATION PATTERN. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER NEW
ENGLAND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, INCLUDING MOST OF THE
WEST COAST AND SOUTHERN ALASKA, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AHEAD
OF A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN
CONUS, UNDER A RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST, AND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, UNDER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST-CALIBRATED ECMWF AND
GEFS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE STATE OF ALASKA,
EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, UNDER AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED
TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PANHANDLE, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL. NEAR-TO-BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE PACIFIC
COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED EAST OF THE GREAT DIVIDE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GREAT PLAINS, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MOST OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, EXCLUDING FLORIDA, SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 32% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, AND GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS, OFFSET BY SMALL
AREAS OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 10 2023
THE GEFS, ECWMF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION DURING
WEEK 2, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHT EVOLUTION OF THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY
CIRCULATION PATTERN. THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA IN THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN WEEK 2. A POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD FORECAST ALSO SHIFTS NORTHWESTWARD IN WEEK 2. OVERALL, THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IN WEEK-2 FORECASTS IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD FORECAST, BUT WITH VERY WEAK, NEAR-AVERAGE, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER A WEAK RIDGE,
EXCEPT FOR THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, WHERE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
IN PROXIMITY TO BELOW AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A SMALL AREA OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, SUPPORTED BY
REFORECAST-CALIBRATED TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MODELS, WITH GREATER PROBABILITIES OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND THE GULF
COAST. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND SOUTHEAST, WHERE THERE IS GREATER UNCERTAINTY AMONG MODEL TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOLS.
DURING WEEK 2, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA,
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, UNDER A
PREDICTED RIDGE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MOST OF
THE EASTERN CONUS, OUTSIDE OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTO AND
CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 32% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS,
OFFSET BY VERY WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS AND WEAK SIGNALS IN
THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19700616 - 19750630 - 19520709 - 19530614 - 19580708
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19750702 - 19520709 - 19920615 - 19870701 - 19580708
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 02 - 06 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A A OHIO N N KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A A RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 04 - 10 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A B COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page