250
FXUS01 KWBC 261957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2023
VALID 00Z TUE JUN 27 2023 - 00Z THU JUN 29 2023
...OPPRESSIVE HEATWAVE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. BEGINS TO
EXPAND INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MID-WEEK...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...
...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE WEST; A CRITICAL RISK
OF FIRE WEATHER FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION TUESDAY...
THE STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. AND
RESULTANT MULTI-WEEK HEATWAVE WILL NOT ONLY CONTINUE BUT BEGIN TO
EXPAND IN REACH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHEASTWARD. HIGHS FROM SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 100S TUESDAY, WITH
UPPER 90S TO 100S SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AS WELL AS EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. SOME DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING
HIGHS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING WARM LOWS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE, WITH THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT
PROVIDING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, COMPOUNDING THE
IMPACTS OF THE HEAT WAVE. THE MAIN DRIVER OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS
DIFFERS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHER AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE
DESERTS AND HIGH PLAINS/WESTERN PLAINS, AND LOWER AIR TEMPERATURES
BUT HIGHER HUMIDITY AND RESULTANT HEAT INDICES TO THE EAST, BOTH
CONTRIBUTING TO A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
TEMPERATURES IN FLORIDA WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE HOT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S CLOSE TO TYING/BREAKING A FEW
DAILY RECORDS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, SOME ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY,
LATER ORGANIZING AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER OUTLINING PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHERN KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR
THE CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY ALONG THE
EAST COAST AS A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER. WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CAROLINAS WILL LIKELY CLEAR A LITTLE QUICKER TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THAN FURTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHEAST, WHERE
THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE LONGER TO PASS THROUGH. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT MAY
HAVE RECEIVED A LOT OF RAINFALL ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION, UPPER OHIO VALLEY, AND
NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
FORECAST. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS, WITH 80S EXPECTED. A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
SOUTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A VERY SLOWLY MOVING
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AS ENERGETIC
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PASSES OVER THE REGION. RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. FURTHER SOUTHWEST, STRONG WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIX DOWN AND LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. THE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY
CONDITIONS HAVE PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE
WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. FORECAST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-70S TO LOW 80S FOR MOST OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST WILL BE IN THE 60S,
WITH MID-80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND
UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST OUTSIDE OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE I-5 URBAN CORRIDOR
AND MID- TO UPPER 80S FOR THE INTERIOR.
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