351
FXUS01 KWBC 270801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 AM EDT TUE JUN 27 2023
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 27 2023 - 12Z THU JUN 29 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND TWO AREAS OF SLIGHT
RISK ON WEDNESDAY OVER PARTS OF UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
TO THE EAST COAST AND STALL OUT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. BY THURSDAY,
THE FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC,
SOUTHEAST WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ON TUESDAY,
THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK STATE, DELAWARE, AND
PENNSYLVANIA. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND
SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND MODERATE
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NEW YORK STATE,
PENNSYLVANIA, MARYLAND, DELAWARE, VIRGINIA, AND NORTH CAROLINA.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN.
MEANWHILE, ALONG THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE,
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS,
OKLAHOMA, EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI, AND NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT OF TWO-INCH OR
GREATER HAIL OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY AND A NEARBY FRONT WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A THREAT OF TWO-INCH OR
GREATER HAIL OVER PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.ON WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES EASTWARD AND DECREASES SLIGHTLY OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
FURTHER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES AND A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE GREAT BASIN, PACIFIC NORTHWEST, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES,
PROMPTING AIR QUALITY WARNINGS OVER THE AREA. THE SMOKE COULD
REDUCE THE AIR QUALITY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
LASTLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY, ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING
OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT, HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER MOST OF TEXAS, SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO, SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, LOUISIANA,
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA, AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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