871
FXUS01 KWBC 271901
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2023
VALID 00Z WED JUN 28 2023 - 00Z FRI JUN 30 2023
...THE LIFE THREATENING HEAT WAVE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY...
...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
..HEAT ALSO TO BUILD THROUGH THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CALIFORNIA
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST...
...POOR AIR QUALITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID
WEST FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES...
THE RECORD HEAT WAVE THAT HAS GRIPPED AREAS FROM SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTH TEXAS OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL BEGIN
TO EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE OVER THE NEXT DAYS FROM THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, RESULTING IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. ALONG WITH THE
HEAT, HIGH HUMIDITIES LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY
LIFE THREATENING HEAT INDICES ACROSS ALL OF THESE AREAS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK. HEAT INDICES VALUES WILL BE IN THE
100 TO 120 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS ALL OF THESE AREAS, WITH THE MAX
AXIS OF HEAT INDICES IN THE 110-120 DEGREE RANGE STRETCHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS, ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND NORTH
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THIS WILL INCLUDE THE MAJOR METRO AREA OF DALLAS- FORT, SAN
ANTONIO, NEW ORLEANS, LITTLE ROCK, JACKSON, MEMPHIS, MONTGOMERY
AND NASHVILLE. HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL OF THE ABOVE DESCRIBED AREAS AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, THERE WILL ALSO BE THE LIKELIHOOD OF RECORD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL NOT ALLOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF COOLING FROM THE RECORD DAY TIME HIGHS, INCREASING THE
HEAT RELATED DANGERS.
ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO WESTERN KANSAS, EASTWARD ACROSS OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ACROSS THESE AREAS, THE
GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS, WITH A LESSER RISK FROM TORNADOES.
WHILE IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY COOL OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS ACROSS
MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE
LEADING TO AN INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF CALIFORNIA STARTING ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE SACRAMENTO AND SAN JOAQUIN VALLEYS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WILL SUPPORT A
WIDESPREAD REGION OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, ACROSS MUCH OF ARIZONA, NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
THE ONGOING FIRES ACROSS PORTIONS OF CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
POOR AIR QUALITY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
TIER OF THE NATION FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE MID WEST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
FORECAST TO PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WILL TAP THE ONGOING WILDFIRE SMOKE OF SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA, SENDING IT SOUTHWARD IN THE COUNTER CLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
ORAVEC
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