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FXUS06 KWBC 271902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JUNE 27 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2023
THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AGREE ON THE LARGE-SCALE
FEATURES OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN DOMAIN
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, DISPLAYING A SLOW EVOLUTION FROM YESTERDAY’S MODEL
SOLUTIONS. THE LONGWAVE CIRCULATION PATTERN IN THE MANUAL BLEND PREDICTS A
TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, AND A RIDGE WITH ASSOCIATED
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WESTERN
CANADA. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES HAVE MOVED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST, RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY’S MANUAL BLEND OF 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS. A WEAK TROUGH IS
PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS IN THE 5-DAY MEAN CIRCULATION
PATTERN. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AND SOUTHERN
AREAS OF THE STATE OF ALASKA, UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES AHEAD OF
A PREDICTED TROUGH. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, UNDER A RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. HOWEVER, NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA, UNDER A PREDICTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST, AND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST,
UNDER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SOUTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY WEAKLY FAVORED FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST, CONSISTENT WITH THE
AUTO AND TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS,
SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION OF REFORECAST-CALIBRATED ECMWF AND GEFS
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE STATE OF ALASKA,
EXCEPT FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, UNDER AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED
TROUGH. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHERN ALASKA
PANHANDLE, SUPPORTED BY THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR COASTAL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, UNDER
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL TOOLS THAT PREDICT A
WEAK MONSOON. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND EASTERN CONUS, EXCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
SUPPORTED BY A CONSENSUS OF DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS, OFFSET BY
SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2023
THE GEFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON
THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN REGION DURING
WEEK 2, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A SLIGHT EVOLUTION OF THE PREDICTED 6-10 DAY
CIRCULATION PATTERN AND INCREASING UNCERTAINTY. THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD IN MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS
IN WEEK 2. A POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST ALSO SHIFTS NORTHWESTWARD IN WEEK 2.
OVERALL, THE CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IN WEEK-2 FORECASTS IS SIMILAR
TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, BUT WITH VERY WEAK, NEAR-AVERAGE, MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR PARTS OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA, IN PROXIMITY TO BELOW AVERAGE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR A SMALL AREA OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE TOOLS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GULF COAST REGION, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST,
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. SLIGHTLY ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES FOR NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FROM THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTO
AND CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOLS.
DURING WEEK 2, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA,
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
PRECIPITATION TOOLS. NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS, UNDER A
PREDICTED RIDGE. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWEST,
CONSISTENT WITH DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, OUTSIDE OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, SUPPORTED BY THE AUTO AND CONSOLIDATION PRECIPITATION TOOLS AND
ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, BASED
ON FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS,
OFFSET BY VERY WEAK 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE CONUS AND WEAK SIGNALS IN
THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19920616 - 19530614 - 19700616 - 19520709 - 19580708
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520708 - 19920615 - 19580708 - 19530613 - 19700618
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 03 - 07 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO A A NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 05 - 11 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF B N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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