449
FXUS01 KWBC 290757
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 AM EDT THU JUN 29 2023
VALID 12Z THU JUN 29 2023 - 12Z SAT JUL 01 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS ON THURSDAY; A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
VALLEYS ON THURSDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, WESTERN OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THEN WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE BOUNDARY
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS
WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, ON THURSDAY, THERE IS A THREAT OF
TWO-INCH OR GREATER HAIL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO VALLEYS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
MOREOVER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER TWO
AREAS, PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
FURTHER, THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS,
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER A WAVY BAND FROM PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTH EAST ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION,
MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOREOVER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA/GREAT
BASIN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
FURTHERMORE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BRINGING WITH THE RIDGE HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES AND
TEMPERATURES NOT COOLING OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT, WHICH HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND HEAT ADVISORIES OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER, SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO, EASTERN OKLAHOMA, EASTERN KANSAS, MISSOURI, ARKANSAS,
LOUISIANA, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, WESTERN TENNESSEE, MISSISSIPPI, AND
ALABAMA.
LASTLY, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA WILL REDUCE AIR QUALITY OVER
PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, WESTERN
OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC,
PROMPTING AIR QUALITY WARNINGS OVER THE AREA.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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