061
FXUS01 KWBC 301940
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EDT FRI JUN 30 2023
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 01 2023 - 00Z MON JUL 03 2023
...MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN TO TRACK
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ACROSS MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS THROUGH THE LOWER
AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...AIR QUALITY ALERTS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES,
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, NORTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN, TRACKING EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY EJECTING OFF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL US, HELPING TO FORCE
PRECIPITATION. THE STRONGEST STORMS CONTAINING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD EACH DAY,
STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON FRIDAY
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. SLIGHT RISKS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN EFFECT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS, HAIL, AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. AS A RESULT,
SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
SATURDAY OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY SUNDAY MORNING, A
MORE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL ENTER THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST, RESULTING IN MORE SYNOPTICALLY FORCED
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT HAS OCCURRED
OVER THE PREVIOUS WEEK, A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN EFFECT OVER MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY.
THE SAME SHORTWAVE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL BEGIN TO ERODE THE UPPER RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING LONG-TERM HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
WEAKENS, THE HIGHEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL SLOWLY
TREND DOWN, THOUGH SWELTERING HEAT IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE GULF COAST. SEVERAL
CITIES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST ARE
EXPECTED TO BREAK THEIR DAILY WARMEST NIGHTTIME LOW RECORDS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT-RELATED DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED DUE TO
THE LONGEVITY OF THIS HEAT WAVE. AS THE RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, HEAT WILL BUILD ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
REACH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF CALIFORNIA MAY CLIMB OVER
100F TO NEAR 110F AT THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY. THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 110S. THE RISK
OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES WILL BE INCREASED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT AND THE SEVERE STORMS, CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IMPACTING PORTIONS OF GREAT LAKES
AND EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, AIR QUALITY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AND DISPERSION OF THE SMOKE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
GENZ/KONG
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