720
FXUS01 KWBC 011956
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2023
VALID 00Z SUN JUL 02 2023 - 00Z TUE JUL 04 2023
...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID-SOUTH SUNDAY...
...EXCESSIVE HEAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AS WELL AS
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER-MIDWEST AHEAD OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES MONDAY...
AN EASTWARD MOVING UPPER-LEVEL WAVE/SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE MIDWEST SATURDAY WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD SUNDAY, PROVIDING
THE FOCUSING MECHANISMS AND UPPER-LEVEL LIFT TO FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC, OHIO VALLEY, AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE TO FUEL
THESE STORMS AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE FROM INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY WHERE THE
BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/CAPE WILL RESIDE AND WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO A FEW INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) STRETCHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND
INTO THE MID-SOUTH. MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER-WAVE
MOVES OVERHEAD SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO LEAD TO
SOME ORGANIZED STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS WITH THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY
AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST, ALTHOUGH WITH A MORE LIMITED RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SEVERE WEATHER. GENERALLY AVERAGE SUMMER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL SUNDAY IN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT, WITH 70S FORECAST. AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD MONDAY, HIGHS WILL WARM UP INTO THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
MEANWHILE, THE HEAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AS WELL AS
CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE A
LITTLE BETTER SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY IN THE SOUTH, HIGHS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE MID- TO UPPER 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. WHEN COMBINED HIGH HUMIDITY,
HEAT INDICES WILL SOAR AS HIGH AS 110 DEGREES, PARTICULARLY FOR
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO
THE REGION AND THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD WILL BRING
A LITTLE RELIEF ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS WILL STAY HOT FURTHER EAST IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EASTWARD, WITH HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 90S. ALSO NOTABLE IS A CONTINUED STRETCH OF
FORECAST NEAR-RECORD AND RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS FOR FLORIDA
IN THE MID- TO UPPER 90S WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD. EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE
SUNDAY OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY UNDER ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM 110-115 FOR THE DESERTS, 105-110 DEGREES FOR THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS, AND UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR OTHER
LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A
FEW RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING IN ON MONDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WHILE THE HEAT CONTINUES FOR THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGHS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH MID-90S TO LOW 100S FORECAST, AS WELL AS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS OTHER THE COAST AND
PUGET SOUND, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES REGION AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD WHILE A WARM UP
IS IN STORE FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S ON
SUNDAY WILL JUMP AS HIGH AS THE MID-90S ON MONDAY. SOME AREAS MAY
STILL SEE SOME POOR AIR QUALITY DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE SMOKE
TENDS TO DISPERSE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY, WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION
AND THE POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S WILL DROP INTO THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page