463
FXUS01 KWBC 020810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 02 2023
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 02 2023 - 12Z TUE JUL 04 2023
...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY
TODAY...
...HEAT WILL BE LESS INTENSE ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT WILL REMAIN
EXCESSIVELY HOT OVER CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES MONDAY INTO
THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SET THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FASTER MOTION THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
PUSH THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY, AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC BY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AND
WIDESPREAD OVER NEW ENGLAND TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER TOGETHER WITH
HEAVY RAIN TODAY APPEARS TO BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/TENNESSEE
WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS
GRADUALLY ERODING THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE PROLONGED
HEAT WAVE THAT HAS BEEN GRIPPING THE SOUTH. WITH THE ERODING
RIDGE, AFTERNOON HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS INTENSE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND HEADING TOWARD THE 4TH
OF JULY HOLIDAY. BY MONDAY, MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HAVE A
CHANCE TO DRY OUT BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST. THE ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WHEN THE LOW BEGINS EXITING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MEANWHILE, EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CALIFORNIA
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH PERHAPS SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT ARRIVING
ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 110-115 FOR
THE DESERTS, 105-110 DEGREES FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS,
AND UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR OTHER LOWER-ELEVATIONS OF CALIFORNIA
OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. A FEW
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO NOTABLE IS A
CONTINUED STRETCH OF FORECAST NEAR-RECORD AND
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS FOR FLORIDA IN THE MID- TO UPPER 90S
WHICH LOOKS TO CONTINUE BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A BRIEF HEAT WAVE IS FORECAST TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY. TOGETHER WITH THE COOL DOWN WILL BE RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FORECAST TO EXPAND WESTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY
EARLY ON INDEPENDENCE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A LOW PRESSURE WAVE ATTEMPTS TO FORM
ALONG THE FRONT.
KONG
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