187
FXUS01 KWBC 021940
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
340 PM EDT SUN JUL 02 2023
VALID 00Z MON JUL 03 2023 - 00Z WED JUL 05 2023
...HEAVY RAIN WITH THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY
THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAT WAVE RELAXES ACROSS THE SOUTH BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
EXCESSIVELY HOT OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND DESERT SOUTHWEST...
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF RAIN/STORM CHANCES MONDAY INTO
INDEPENDENCE DAY...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT THE REGION. AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE BROAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IMPACTING THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE NATION, WITH GREATER CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING CLOSER TO A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HERE, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING DUE TO THE THREAT OF
SCATTERED FLOODING. JUST TO THE SOUTH WITHIN A WARMER AND MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC. DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
WITH A ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT EXTENDING
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. BY MONDAY, MUCH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE ASSOCIATED
UPPER TROUGH GETS STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. STILL,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY TURN SEVERE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC. THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE EAST COAST
WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO JULY 4TH AS WELL.
THE RELAXING HEAT WAVE WILL KEEP OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDICES
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST AND IMMEDIATE GULF COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE
CONFINING SOUTHWARD EVEN MORE ON INDEPENDENCE DAY. HEAT INDICES
COULD APPROACH 105-110 DEGREES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID-90S, WHICH CAN BE DANGEROUS IF SPENDING AN EXTENDED AMOUNT OF
TIME OUTDOORS. ADDITIONALLY, HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN STORY
THROUGHOUT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND WEST COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGHS WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE
CENTRAL VALLEY REGION OF CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST. A FEW
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE CHALLENGED ON MONDAY,
BEFORE THE RECORD-BREAKING HEAT POTENTIAL SHIFTS UP THE WEST COAST
INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN OREGON. HERE, HIGHS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 90S AND LOW 100S ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BY MONDAY, A POTENT COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SPARK ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AND EXTEND FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL BE VERY WARM, WITH
INTO THE MID-90S ACROSS PARTS OF MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH HIGHS AS
MUCH AS 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ON TUESDAY.
FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY ITSELF, THE GREATEST STORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST ALONG TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES DRAPED ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, AS
HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. OTHERWISE, SHOWER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
LINGER OVER THE NORTHEAST WHILE SLOW MOVING STORMS DEVELOP NEAR A
WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
SNELL
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