823
FXUS06 KWBC 041902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 04 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 14 2023
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED AMPLIFIED
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GFS, ECMWF, AND CANADIAN MODEL ENSEMBLES DUE TO RECENT
MODEL SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA WITH RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ALASKA. A
WEAK TROUGH IS PREDICTED ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS. ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, THE DOMINANT FEATURE IS FORECAST TO BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE ROCKIES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A TREND TOWARD HIGHER
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND MORE RIDGING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHING MOVES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM. ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER ALASKA UNDERNEATH ANOMALOUS MID-LEVEL RIDGING.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING ELEVATED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST, THE
OHIO VALLEY, AND THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES REMAIN INCREASED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST.
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PREDICTED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
INCREASED TROUGHING OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF REFORECAST
CONSOLIDATION TOOLS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN AND NORTHERN ALASKA GIVEN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE AND
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS.
PREDICTED SHORTWAVE TROUGHING AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL DISTURBANCE MOVING
ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS LEAD TO ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER MANY AREAS FROM PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS,GREAT LAKES REGION,
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, NEVADA, AND THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DUE TO SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AND A SLOW START TO THE MONSOON. RIDGING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC FAVORS INCREASED NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. TROUGHING OVER THE
BERING SEA AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW FAVORED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE NORMAL, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST MODELS, OFFSET BY
WEAKENING OF HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 18 2023
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN DURING WEEK-2 IS PREDICTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER, WITH WEAK TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE 500-HPA
ANOMALIES REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE BERING SEA, ALONG WITH A RETROGRESSION OF THE RIDGING ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, LEADING TO HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA COMPARED TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD.
DURING WEEK-2, INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION. A TILT TOWARD INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
WHERE SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED DUE TO RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC. INCREASING SUBTROPICAL RIDGING FAVORS ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE RENEWED EXCESSIVE HEAT CONCERNS ARE
PREDICTED DURING THE PERIOD. INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO RIDGING OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS A PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN ALASKA, WITH A
STRONGER INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING AND HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FAVORING INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE.
AS DISCUSSED IN THE 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO LEAD
TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
AS A RESULT, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER WASHINGTON, NORTHERN
IDAHO, PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EXTENDING EASTWARD TO PORTIONS
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE
SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR PARTS OF IDAHO, WYOMING, NEVADA, THE FOUR CORNERS REGION,
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO A LATE START
TO THE MONSOON AND PREDICTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE REGION. NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA, DUE TO WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S GFS
SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT
AMONG MODEL ENSEMBLES ON THE PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN, OFFSET BY WEAKER
ANOMALIES REDUCING FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520708 - 19890621 - 19780707 - 19580707 - 19520713
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19520709 - 19580707 - 19890620 - 19780707 - 19520714
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 10 - 14 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL A B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 12 - 18 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B A OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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