047
FXUS01 KWBC 051946
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT WED JUL 05 2023
VALID 00Z THU JUL 06 2023 - 00Z SAT JUL 08 2023
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING CHANCES
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...
...HEAT REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY (WEDNESDAY) WHILE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND
CRITICAL FIRE RISK ARE IN EFFECT FOR ARIZONA...
A FAIRLY STRONG FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS PRESSING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AND SPARKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF IT. THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS FRONT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS AND EVENTUALLY THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION. IN
FACT, THERE IS A SMALL SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS/SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN THROUGH
TONIGHT PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. BUT OVERALL MORE
IMPACTFUL WILL BE MULTIPLE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS IN THE
CENTRAL U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS THE FRONT BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY FROM GENERALLY WEST-EAST AND SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR
MOISTURE TO POOL. SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE RISK PERHAPS PEAKING ON
THURSDAY IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHERE THERE IS AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS AS TORNADOES, HIGH WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL ARE
ALL POTENTIAL RISKS. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING SINCE HIGH RAIN RATES ARE LIKELY.
SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE THROUGH ALL OF THE
NEXT THREE DAYS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS GIVEN
THIS POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTHEAST COULD SEE SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS WELL.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS CAUSING A NOTABLE DIVIDE IN ABOVE AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TODAY SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST, WHILE GRADUALLY MODERATING AND SPREADING
EAST, WITH A FEW RECORD COOL HIGHS/LOWS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SOUTH OF THE FRONT
FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST.
SOUTHWESTERN STATES CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 100S AND
EVEN 110S, WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY
IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE
HEAT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISKS OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CENTERED IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. ALSO, FLORIDA'S
HIGHS TODAY REACHING THE MID-UPPER 90S COULD SET RECORDS, AND HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE. THE COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES TO
BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL U.S. BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
IT PUSHES THROUGH. ADDITIONALLY, HOT WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO EVEN EXCEEDING
100F POTENTIALLY SETTING RECORDS THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERN PARTS OF
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD COOL TOMORROW WHILE THE INTERIOR REGIONS WARM
ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE 90S, BUT NOT TO RECORD LEVELS.
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