894
FXUS01 KWBC 060810
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT THU JUL 06 2023
VALID 12Z THU JUL 06 2023 - 12Z SAT JUL 08 2023
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING CHANCES PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY, REACHING INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SATURDAY...
...HEAT REACHES ITS PEAK INTENSITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY (WEDNESDAY) WHILE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND
CRITICAL FIRE RISK ARE IN EFFECT FOR ARIZONA...
THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS PERIODIC FORMATION OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
REPEAT ITSELF AS WE HEAD TOWARD THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JULY. THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING SURGE OF ANOMALOUSLY COOL
AIR FROM CANADA WITH POSSIBLE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT DIPS INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THE BOUNDARY
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE
EJECTED FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
GENERAL SITUATION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, WHICH
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A FEW INCHES OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA INTO OKLAHOMA. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, THE
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP A
LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT AS THE WAVE HEADS
TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW A CHANCE FOR
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO DRY OUT A BIT AS THE BULK OF THE HEAVY
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS HEAD EASTWARD ACROSS MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS
AND INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
OUTSIDE OF THE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AS THE UPPER PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
ON FRIDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED BY EARLY SATURDAY. MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. SUMMERTIME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AS WELL.
COOL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY AT LEAST, WHILE GRADUALLY MODERATING AND
SPREADING EAST. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
AVERAGE SOUTH OF THE FRONT FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND INTO THE EAST. SOUTHWESTERN STATES CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 100S AND EVEN 110S, WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH THE HEAT WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISKS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. MEANWHILE, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER
90S ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA COULD CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE. ON
THE OPPOSITE SIDE OF THE COUNTRY, HOT WEATHER IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES
NEARING 100F ARE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AT THE HOTTEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS.
KONG/TATE
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