479
FXUS01 KWBC 070800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI JUL 07 2023
VALID 12Z FRI JUL 07 2023 - 12Z SUN JUL 09 2023
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHEAST AND FLORIDA...
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND INTO THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS SATURDAY...
...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID ALONG THE EAST COAST HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL
AS A TYPICAL BUOYANT SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY BOUTS OF RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND AND THE
NORTHEAST SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID-80S IN NEW ENGLAND AND
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST, THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS, AND THE LOW TO MID-90S FOR THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID-90S AS WELL FOR
FLORIDA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS ON
FRIDAY.
A PAIR OF MEANDERING FRONTAL SYSTEMS UNDER ENERGETIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH
HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES, A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY, WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT EPISODES, WITH A RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
LEAD TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) GENERALLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
RISK. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY LAST LONGER AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD INTO THE LATE-NIGHT HOURS DEPENDING ON THE LEVEL
OF ORGANIZATION AND PATH OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES ARE ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTH
FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT SOUTH OF THE
FRONTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH
UPPER 80S TO MID-90S FORECAST. IN CONTRAST, HIGHS WILL BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE BY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S, WITH A FEW COOLER SPOTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND A FEW
WARMER LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SUMMER-TIME HOT AND ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST AS AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS AS HIGHS RISE INTO
THE 100S, WITH LOW 110S FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. IN ADDITION, RED
FLAG WARNINGS AS WELL AS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER ARE IN PLACE FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AS STEADY WINDS AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES. WHILE
ADVISORIES ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN PLACE, HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID-90S FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BE RUNNING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE
FOR THE URBAN I-5 CORRIDOR, WITH 80S FORECAST. A PAIR OF
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS/WAVES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP THINGS A
BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTH
THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH 60S FORECAST, AND MID-80S TO LOW 90S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
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