324
FXUS01 KWBC 071914
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EDT FRI JUL 07 2023
VALID 00Z SAT JUL 08 2023 - 00Z MON JUL 10 2023
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF INTENSE RAINFALL
LIKELY ON SUNDAY...
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
THREAT GRADUALLY SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WEST
TEXAS, INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND HUMID ALONG THE EAST COAST HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AMPLE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. A FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST AS WELL
AS A TYPICAL BUOYANT SUMMERTIME AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THE RISK OF
CONTINUED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD
CONTAIN LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC,
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON SATURDAY, THE NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL
IS LIKELY TO ENTER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON
SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. A FEW
INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, PARTICULARLY BETWEEN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA/NEW JERSEY TO UPSTATE NEW YORK/VERMONT. A SLIGHT RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION ON
SUNDAY.
A PAIR OF MEANDERING FRONTAL SYSTEMS UNDER ENERGETIC FLOW ALOFT
OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO TRIGGER
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO THIS WEEKEND. WITH
AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARIES, A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH SOUTHERN KANSAS/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER
SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEVELOPING IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT EPISODES, WITH A RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
LEAD TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING SLIGHT RISKS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) GENERALLY CO-LOCATED WITH THE FLASH FLOOD
RISK. A SMALL ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES, WHERE THE RISK
FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS GREATEST. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS OVERALL. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING SOUTH FROM CANADA THIS
EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT SOUTH OF THE FRONTS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH UPPER
80S TO MID-90S FORECAST. IN CONTRAST, HIGHS WILL BE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE BY AS MUCH AS 10-15 DEGREES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S, WITH A FEW COOLER SPOTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND A FEW
WARMER LOCATIONS INTO THE LOW 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE SUMMER-TIME HOT AND ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST AS AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING ALOFT REMAIN IN PLACE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE
100S, WITH LOW 110S FOR PORTIONS OF ARIZONA. IN ADDITION, RED FLAG
WARNINGS AS WELL AS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ARE IN PLACE FOR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS
STEADY WINDS AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH THE
HOT TEMPERATURES TO ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES. WHILE
ADVISORIES ARE NOT CURRENTLY IN PLACE, HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MID-90S FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST WILL BE RUNNING
10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE
FOR THE URBAN I-5 CORRIDOR, WITH 80S FORECAST. A PAIR OF
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS/WAVES JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL KEEP THINGS A
BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SOUTH
THROUGH CALIFORNIA WITH 60S FORECAST, AND MID-80S TO LOW 90S FOR
THE INTERIOR VALLEYS. ADDITIONALLY, HOT AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDICES TO RISE BETWEEN 105-110 ACROSS PARTS
OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING, INCLUDING MIAMI AND
JACKSONVILLE.
SNELL/PUTNAM
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