366
FXUS01 KWBC 080800
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT JUL 08 2023
VALID 12Z SAT JUL 08 2023 - 12Z MON JUL 10 2023
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE LIKELY FOR
THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...
...HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST, WEST
TEXAS, INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND FLORIDA PENINSULA...
A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY UNDER ENERGETIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. RICH MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT DOWNPOURS, AND
THE CONTINUED TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO CLUSTER/GROW UPSCALE WILL
LEAD TO BROAD AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. SLIGHT
RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ARE IN EFFECT BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH WET SOILS FROM REPEATED ROUNDS OF
ORGANIZED STORMS/RAINFALL THE LAST FEW DAYS INCREASING THE RISK
FOR SOME SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, THE MODERATELY
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO AID STORM
ORGANIZATION. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) HAS BEEN
ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SATURDAY, AND CONTINUED FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY,
AS THE WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, AND
PERHAPS SOME LARGE HAIL. SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING FROM A STALLED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL HELP TO DRIVE
ADDITIONAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDWEST/PLAINS,
HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE AND BRING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.
STORMS AND GENERAL CLOUDINESS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO UNSEASONABLY
COOL SUMMER TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHERE HIGHS WILL BE RUNNING 10-15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. IN GENERAL, HIGHS WILL BE RUNNING IN THE
MID-70S TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY IN BETWEEN FRONTS, WITH HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S.
TO THE EAST, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN
SATURDAY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
DRAPED ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND SOUTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. LIFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IN THE MEAN FLOW AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST
PUSHES EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST WILL TRIGGER MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN PROMOTE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE NORTHWARD
PARALLEL TO THE INCOMING FRONT WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND/THE NORTHEAST SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE CONDITIONS OVERLAPS WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS FROM RAINFALL THIS PAST WEEK. INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR A
FEW ORGANIZED, SEVERE STORMS STRETCHING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTH AND WESTWARD THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE CHANCE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME
LARGE HAIL.
TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT, FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID-80S FOR NEW ENGLAND, UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR
THE MID-ATLANTIC, LOW TO MID-90S FOR THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND MID- TO UPPER 90S FOR EASTERN TEXAS. HIGHS
WILL DROP INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 80S FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTHWEST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INFLUENCED BY RAIN/STORMS AND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY, WITH HIGH ONLY IN THE 70S FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WEST INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER
GREAT LAKES. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID-90S FOR FLORIDA.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS WHILE THESE HIGHS DON'T STAND OUT AS
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE, THEY CONTINUE TO BE AT OR NEAR
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LEVELS, WITH NEAR RECORD-TYING/BREAKING
OVERNIGHT WARM LOWS AS WELL.HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT THIS
WEEKEND FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST SITUATED
UNDER A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT. HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 100S, WITH LOW 110S FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARIZONA. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT/EXPAND WESTWARD LATE IN THE
PERIOD, SIGNALING INCREASING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS DEEPER INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WITH SOME HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES IN EFFECT AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE UPPER 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS NORTHWESTWARD, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-90S TO LOW 100S.
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