781
FXUS01 KWBC 090801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN JUL 09 2023
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 09 2023 - 12Z TUE JUL 11 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WITH THE THREAT LINGERING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY...
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...
...ANOMALOUSLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST, WEST TEXAS, INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
A CONSOLIDATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS LED TO DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A COUPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN STORE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AS WELL AS A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A STEADY STREAM OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FLOW INTO THE REGION AND WILL HELP TO FUEL VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH EFFICIENT, HIGH RAIN RATES. THE MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW
EAST OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO
REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN EACH DAY. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FROM INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL OVERLAP WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, LEADING TO THE RISK FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A MODERATE RISK IS ALSO IN
EFFECT MONDAY FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AS CONDITIONS REMAINED
PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING
FRONT. A BIT MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE RESIDING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME MORE ORGANIZED
STORMS CAPABLE PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) IN PLACE FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE
PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD STORMS AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPERATURES BROADLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST, WITH 70S FOR THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY, LOWER GREAT LAKES,
AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND 80S ELSEWHERE.
STORM CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER SUNDAY FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AFTER REMAINING STORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY CLEAR OUT SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH STORM CHANCES REMAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOLLOWING THE LIKELY TRACK OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION/REDEVELOPMENT PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST,
ORGANIZED STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
EFFECT. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF STORMS EARLY SUNDAY,
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REBOUND A BIT MORE MONDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST, WITH
INCREASING PRECIPIATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES
MONDAY. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
AVERAGE SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION, HOVERING IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE MONDAY WITH MID- TO UPPER
80S EXPECTED. LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE A WARM UP AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S FOR LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST
AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID-90S
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-109 DEGREE RANGE.
HOT TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST
HAVE BEGUN TO BROADEN IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN
ALOFT WITH HEAT RELATED ADVISORIES STRETCHING FROM EAST TEXAS WEST
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S
TO 100 FOR EAST TEXAS COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO
HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. TO THE WEST, HUMIDITY WONT BE AS HIGH, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 100S, WITH SOME 110S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEAN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE
INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE DAY OF MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE APPROACHING MONDAY HELPS TO DROP TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
80S AND MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN, WITH
HIGHS INTO THE 90S. THE NOTED UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AS WELL AS A SECOND UPPER-WAVE OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ALONG THE WEST
COAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 70S TO
LOW 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page