957
FXUS01 KWBC 090816
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 AM EDT SUN JUL 09 2023
VALID 12Z SUN JUL 09 2023 - 12Z TUE JUL 11 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY, WITH THE THREAT LINGERING ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ON MONDAY...
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...ANOMALOUSLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, TEXAS, THE SOUTHWEST, AND THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...
A CONSOLIDATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT HAS LED TO DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A COUPLE DAYS OF WIDESPREAD, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IS IN STORE FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST.
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA AS WELL AS THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS. A STEADY STREAM OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO FLOW INTO THE REGION AND WILL HELP TO FUEL VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH EFFICIENT, HIGH RAIN RATES. THE MEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW EAST OF
THE FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO REPEATEDLY
MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN EACH DAY. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 3/4) IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY FROM INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL OVERLAP WET
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, LEADING TO THE RISK FOR SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A BIT MORE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE RESIDING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SOME MORE ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) IN PLACE
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS ALSO IN EFFECT MONDAY FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND AS
CONDITIONS REMAINED PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS AN ORGANIZING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST HELPS TO DRIVE ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE REGION. THE PRESENCE OF WIDESPREAD
STORMS AS WELL AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH WILL LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES BROADLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, WITH 70S FOR THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY, LOWER GREAT LAKES, AND PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
AND 80S ELSEWHERE.
STORM CHANCES WILL BE MUCH LOWER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AFTER REMAINING STORMS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY
CLEAR OUT SUNDAY MORNING, WITH STORM CHANCES REMAINING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOLLOWING THE
LIKELY TRACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION/REDEVELOPMENT PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. A FEW OF THE
MORE ROBUST, ORGANIZED STORMS REDEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY ALSO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN EFFECT. FOLLOWING THE DEPARTURE OF STORMS EARLY
SUNDAY, ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REBOUND A BIT MORE MONDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD INTO THE
PLAINS/MIDWEST, WITH INCREASING PRECIPIATION CHANCES FOR PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKIES. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
IS IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HIGH TEMPERATURES
OVERALL WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERN
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION, HOVERING IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN CLOSER TO AVERAGE MONDAY
WITH MID- TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED. LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SEE
A WARM UP AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID-80S TO LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 70S FOR
LOCATIONS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST
AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE MID-90S
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT SUNDAY
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE THESE HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE.
HOT TEMPERATURES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST
HAVE BEGUN TO BROADEN IN COVERAGE AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILDS IN
ALOFT WITH HEAT-RELATED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES STRETCHING FROM
EAST TEXAS WEST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 90S TO 100 FOR EAST TEXAS COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TO THE WEST, HUMIDITY WONT BE AS HIGH, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 100S, WITH SOME 110S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MEAN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN AND INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE DAY OF
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS
BEFORE AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHING MONDAY HELPS TO DROP
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 80S AND MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 90S. THE NOTED
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS WELL AS A SECOND
UPPER-WAVE OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH
COOLER ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND 70S TO LOW 80S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
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