479
FXUS01 KWBC 092000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT SUN JUL 09 2023
VALID 00Z MON JUL 10 2023 - 00Z WED JUL 12 2023
...HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING THROUGHOUT PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY...
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...ANOMALOUSLY HOT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, TEXAS, AND THE SOUTHWEST...
A CONSOLIDATING FRONTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE TONIGHT WHEN COMBINED WITH ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT RIPE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS HEAVY RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON ALREADY STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST MARYLAND TO SOUTHERN
NEW YORK STATE, WITH A FAST MOVING LINE OF STORMS EXTENDING INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL. THIS CORRIDOR OF INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES HAS PRODUCED AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE THREAT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
EXPAND AND LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE ASSOCIATED
STORM SYSTEM IS SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL
3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS WELL AS FLOOD
WATCHES. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ADVISED TO HEED ANY WARNINGS
AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH A FLOODED ROADWAY. IF DRIVING IS
NECESSARY, BE SURE TO CHECK CURRENT ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE
VENTURING OUT AS OVER 50% OF ALL FLASH FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR
WITHIN VEHICLES. BY MONDAY, THE SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND COULD BECOME
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS THROUGHOUT PARTS OF VERMONT AND THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY BORDERING NEARBY NEW YORK STATE. SEVERAL ADDITIONAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL FALLING WITHIN A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVER
MOSTLY SATURATED GROUND COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT FLASH AND RIVER
FLOODING IMPACTS. WHERE TERRAIN IS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE, MUD SLIDES
CANNOT BE RULED OUR ACROSS VERMONT AS WELL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
FINALLY EXIT MUCH OF THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND ONLY OFFER
A FEW REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES.
FURTHER SOUTH ALONG AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, ADDITIONAL SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES EXIST TONIGHT IN THE MID-SOUTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS A THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. BY MONDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE GREAT PLAINS, WITH
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL EXTENDING
AS FAR NORTH AS THE UPPER MIDWEST NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS COLD FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO
SOUTHERN IOWA.
HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER, INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST, TEXAS, AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK, WITH 110S POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS ARIZONA. EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AND
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. ADDITIONALLY, THE COMBINATION OF
HIGH TEMPERATURES AND OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY MAY ALLOW FOR HEAT
INDICES TO APPROACH 115 DEGREES THROUGHOUT PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS.
ELEVATED HEAT INDICES MAY ALSO EXTEND DEEPER INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
AND CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS IF CITIZENS ARE
UNABLE TO FIND RELIEF IN AIR CONDITIONED BUILDINGS. HIGH HEAT
INDICES ARE ALSO LOCATED OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA, WHERE
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT IN ORDER TO HIGHLIGHT FORECAST HEAT
INDICES UP TO 110 DEGREES.
SNELL
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