921
FXUS01 KWBC 101842
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2023
VALID 00Z TUE JUL 11 2023 - 00Z THU JUL 13 2023
...SIGNIFICANT TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT AND NEARBY SECTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...
...ANOMALOUSLY HOT WEATHER FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER INTO MIDWEEK...
A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM CONTAINING INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN HAS
IMPACTED MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY, PARTICULARLY IN VERMONT, WITH
SEVERAL INSTANCES OF SEVERE FLOODING. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ANOMALOUS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ONGOING
HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BEFORE THEN HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING SHOWERS CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO DUMP A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN VERMONT AND FAR NORTHEAST NEW
YORK. AS A RESULT, DANGEROUS FLOODING IN THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE OR WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, WITH IMPACTS TURNING
FROM FLASH FLOODING TO MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING. A HIGH RISK
(LEVEL 4/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
VERMONT, HIGHLIGHTING THE POTENTIAL FOR CATASTROPHIC FLOODING THAT
HAS NOT BEEN SEEN IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY SINCE 2011. IT IS
IMPERATIVE TO NEVER DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS, AS MOST
FLOOD-RELATED DEATHS OCCUR WITHIN VEHICLES.
ELSEWHERE, A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SEPARATE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW
FOR NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ARE MOST LIKELY
TO ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH IS
WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STRETCHING INTO MUCH OF WISCONSIN, AS WELL AS FURTHER SOUTH
THROUGHOUT THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. FLASH
FLOODING CHANCES MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY STORMS AS THEY CROSS INTO
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS, WHERE RECENT RAIN HAS
LEFT SOILS MOSTLY SATURATED. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE GREATEST
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT SHIFTS TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS DEVELOPING STORMS PROGRESS ALONG A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
JULY HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES AS AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORS OVER
WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL EASILY REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, WITH UPPER
90S AND LOW 100S EXPANDING INTO MORE OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 110S ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MEANWHILE, OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS, THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST, AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF TEXAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO ACCOUNT FOR
HEAT INDICES UP TO 110 DEGREES. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE
REMINDED TO FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY AND LIMIT STRENUOUS OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
SNELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page