171
FXUS01 KWBC 110801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2023
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 11 2023 - 12Z THU JUL 13 2023
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...ANOMALOUSLY HOT SUMMER WEATHER FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...
...NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR
THE NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST...
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS LED TO DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONGOING ORGANIZED CONVECTION EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
AND ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAS PROMOTED A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4). SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE. FURTHER NORTH,
ENERGETIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.
MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ACCORDANCE, SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE
WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION, HIGH
SURFACE MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT CAPE WILL LEAD TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WITH HIGH RAIN RATES. THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY FOR THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE COMBINATION OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF
STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
AVERAGE FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 80S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SUBSEQUENT
CONTINUATION/EXPANSION OF ANOMALOUSLY HOT SUMMER HEAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. NUMEROUS HEAT-RELATED
ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS TO
CALIFORNIA. STARTING IN FLORIDA, HIGHS IN THE MID-90S ARE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT RELATIVELY ANOMALOUS, WITH NEAR
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR
EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY, SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES UP TO 110 HERE AS WELL. FURTHER
WEST INTO WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, HUMIDITY
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH BUT THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE HOTTER,
RANGING BETWEEN THE MID-100S TO MID-110S, POSING A SIMILARLY HIGH
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME DAILY
FLUCTUATIONS, THE HEAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE BROADENING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE.
ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTH AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR NEW ENGLAND AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT
IN GENERAL FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO MID-90S. AFTER A COOL RAINY DAY IN THE 70S FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID-
TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE BROADLY
ACROSS THE WEST OUTSIDE OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN TO
THE UPPER 90S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND CLOSE TO THE
WEST COAST.
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