562
FXUS01 KWBC 110808
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EDT TUE JUL 11 2023
VALID 12Z TUE JUL 11 2023 - 12Z THU JUL 13 2023
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...ANOMALOUSLY HOT SUMMER WEATHER FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER...
...NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS FOR
THE NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST...
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS LED TO DAYS OF ACTIVE
WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND THE RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TUESDAY IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ONGOING ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAS
PROMOTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4).
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AS THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE.
FURTHER NORTH, ENERGETIC NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY AND THE
MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT. IN ACCORDANCE,
SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ONE OR MORE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IN ADDITION, HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE AND SUBSEQUENT CAPE WILL
PROMOTE STORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND HIGH RAIN RATES. THERE ARE
SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY
TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO LOWER GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY FOR THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS FROM
THE COMBINATION OF REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW AVERAGE FOLLOWING THE
PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH OVER TEXAS AND THE SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH SUBSEQUENT
CONTINUATION/EXPANSION OF ANOMALOUSLY HOT SUMMER HEAT FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. NUMEROUS HEAT-RELATED
ADVISORIES/WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS TO
CALIFORNIA. STARTING IN FLORIDA, HIGHS IN THE MID-90S ARE NOT
SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE AVERAGE BUT RELATIVELY ANOMALOUS, WITH NEAR
RECORD-TYING/BREAKING TEMPERATURES FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE BETWEEN
105-110 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S FOR
EASTERN TEXAS TUESDAY, SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO ADDITIONAL
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES UP TO 110 HERE AS WELL. FURTHER
WEST INTO WEST TEXAS AS WELL AS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, HUMIDITY
WILL NOT BE AS HIGH BUT THE AIR TEMPERATURE WILL BE HOTTER,
RANGING BETWEEN THE MID-100S TO MID-110S, POSING A SIMILARLY HIGH
RISK OF HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME DAILY
FLUCTUATIONS, THE HEAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK
AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK AS THE BROADENING UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
REMAINS IN PLACE.
ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS WILL PUSH NORTH AND EVENTUALLY COME TO AN END
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY FOR NEW ENGLAND AFTER MULTIPLE DAYS OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL CLEAR OUT
IN GENERAL FOLLOWING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO JUST
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO MID-90S. AFTER A COOL RAINY DAY IN THE 70S FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE MID-
TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND AVERAGE BROADLY
ACROSS THE WEST OUTSIDE OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN TO
THE UPPER 90S FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND CLOSE TO THE
WEST COAST.
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