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FXUS06 KWBC 111902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE JULY 11 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 21 2023
BROAD 500-HPA RIDGING AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY
PERIOD. THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS. A BROAD TROUGH AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PERSIST
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH THE LARGEST BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHT ANOMALIES
CENTERED ON THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
ALSO LINGERING INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF
THE TROUGHING FEATURE. GENERALLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST IN
ALASKA, WITH THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND
ARCTIC OCEAN. HOWEVER, IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, A SLIGHT AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES MAY IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES BENEATH SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
500-HPA HEIGHTS AND NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND FLORIDA WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
DURING THE PERIOD. WEAKER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AHEAD OF THE 500-HPA TROUGH, AND MOST
OF THE WEST, WITH 500-HPA RIDGING PREDICTED ACROSS THE REGION. IN ALASKA, MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK FLOW AND LONG DAYS LEADING TO ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA.
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IS FAVORED TO HAVE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH RIDGING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED IN MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WHERE
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS REMAIN DURING THE PERIOD. REFORECAST GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE PERIOD. THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER
FOR A STRONGER MONSOON CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE, A
SMALL AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL IS FORECAST IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. AN AREA OF
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS NORTH OF THE PREDICTED AREA OF POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND AT THE BASE
OF THE BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST. THESE ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EXTEND EASTWARD TO COVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, WHERE A NORMAL
SUMMER-TIME PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR RAIN. IN ALASKA, NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN MAY FAVOR EASTERLY
WAVES THAT MAY ENHANCE MOISTURE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND HEIGHT TOOLS INCREASES CONFIDENCE, OFFSET
BY DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN DUE TO GENERALLY WEAKER
SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25 2023
FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
DURING THE WEEK-2 FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH IS NOT ALTOGETHER ABNORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE, AND PERHAPS STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. IN THIS
REGION, THE PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THE APPEARANCE OF A MONSOON-LIKE
SIGNATURE. ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE LARGELY FAVORED
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. HOWEVER, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN
THE WEST, THIS MAY LEAD TO WEAK AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST.
IN ALASKA, THE HEIGHT PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD PERSISTS, WITH POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCLUDING SOUTHEAST
ALASKA WHERE NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE
COUNTRY DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD CORRESPONDING TO PREDICTED WIDESPREAD NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WHERE THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL. SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WARM AND HUMID
PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, GENERAL RIDGING ACROSS THE
WEST, BRINGS CONTINUED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THIS REGION.
HOWEVER, ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PROBABILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD AS A MORE MONSOON-LIKE PATTERN MAY LIMIT
DIURNAL HEATING. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND LONG DAYS LEAD TO ENHANCED
DIURNAL HEATING THAT INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND
RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGIONS AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO INDICATE A MORE ROBUST MONSOON PATTERN. THIS MAY
LEAD TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST BY WEEK-2.
DEW POINT FORECASTS FROM THE GEFS INDICATE INCREASED DEW POINTS WORKING INTO
THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE PERIOD. THIS LENDS TO A SLIGHTLY WETTER FORECAST
RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST AND PREVIOUS WEEK-2 FORECASTS. ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS, A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AROUND MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FAVORS
A LARGE AREA OF NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST, WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN. IN ALASKA, NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 15% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, CONTINUING TO
SEE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040623 - 19650708 - 20000717 - 19940723 - 19620710
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040622 - 19950704 - 19580626 - 19620710 - 19650707
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 21 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A N
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 19 - 25 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N B
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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