286
FXUS01 KWBC 111946
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2023
VALID 00Z WED JUL 12 2023 - 00Z FRI JUL 14 2023
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...ANOMALOUSLY HOT SUMMER WEATHER FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND SOUTHWEST...
..HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL RETURNS TO NEW ENGLAND BY THURSDAY
AN ACTIVE MID-JULY WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE NATION, WHICH WILL INCLUDE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS DANGEROUS HEAT. THROUGH TONIGHT, TWO
EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ALONG THE SOUTHERNMOST BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
THAT COULD INCLUDE SLOW FORWARD MOTIONS MAY RESULT IN HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING CHANCES. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION BETWEEN THE
ARKLATEX AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. FARTHER NORTH, A
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EXTENDING INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHEN COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE WILL PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT AREAS FROM
EASTERN MONTANA TO IOWA, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND VERY LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE
EASTERN MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN IOWA MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS SAME SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FROM THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH THE THREAT
REMAINING ON THURSDAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
GREATEST RISK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODS.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST THAT ALSO STRETCHES INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO SPAN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, WITH DAILY
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S, WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 110
DEGREES ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHILE ALSO EXPANDING EASTWARD INTO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGHOUT THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, WITH
HEAT ADVISORIES SPANNING FROM SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH. ADDITIONALLY, HIGH HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WHEN COMBINED WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
OPPRESSIVE DAYTIME AND OVERNIGHT HEAT THROUGHOUT THE IMMEDIATE
GULF COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE, HOT BUT NOT
NECESSARILY HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS INTO THE THE UPPER
80S AND LOW-90S ARE FORECAST FROM VIRGINIA TO MAINE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ENTERING NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY ALONG
WITH ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER A REGION STILL RECOVERING FROM
RECENT FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT
FOR THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF VERMONT, EASTERN NEW YORK, AND
NEIGHBORING NEW HAMPSHIRE AS A FEW ADDITIONAL INCHES OF RAINFALL
ARE POSSIBLE AND COULD LOCALLY EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS.
SNELL
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