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FXUS06 KWBC 121902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED JULY 12 2023
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 18 - 22 2023
BROAD 500-HPA RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS) DURING THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD.
THE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTEND INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A
BROAD TROUGH AND NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH THE LARGEST NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED ON THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. GENERALLY POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST IN
ALASKA, WITH THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES CENTERED OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER, IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, AN AREA OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
MAY IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES BENEATH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS AND NORTHERLY FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTHERN
PLAINS, AND FLORIDA WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
DURING THE PERIOD. WEAKER PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AHEAD OF THE 500-HPA TROUGH, AND MOST
OF THE WEST, WITH 500-HPA RIDGING PREDICTED ACROSS THE REGION. IN ALASKA, MUCH
OF THE STATE IS FAVORED TO SEE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH WEAK FLOW AND
LONG DAYS LEADING TO ENHANCED DIURNAL HEATING. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE WEAKLY FAVORED ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS IS FAVORED TO HAVE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD WITH 500-HPA RIDGING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED IN MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, AND LOWER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
REMAIN DURING THE PERIOD THAT WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, THE INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE COMING TOGETHER FOR A STRONGER NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON (NAM) TO DEVELOP. REFORECAST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING INCREASED
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE PERIOD AS A 500-HPA RIDGE SETTLES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP AND BRING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THEREFORE, A SMALL AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST IN
SOUTHERN ARIZONA. AN AREA OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, NORTH OF THE PREDICTED AREA OF POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS. IN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH. IN ALASKA,
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS EASTERN INTERIOR ALASKA
AS THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN MAY FAVOR EASTERLY WAVES THAT MAY ENHANCE
MOISTURE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE STATE. SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS ALSO
FAVORED TO HAVE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND HEIGHT TOOLS INCREASES CONFIDENCE, OFFSET
BY DECREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN DUE TO GENERALLY WEAKER
SIGNALS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 26 2023
FORECAST 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS
DURING THE WEEK-2 FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH IS NOT ALTOGETHER ABNORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER, BROAD RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
IN THE SOUTHWEST INCREASED RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BEARS THE
APPEARANCE OF A NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON CIRCULATION PATTERN. ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS, NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE LARGELY FAVORED DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
HOWEVER, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE WEST, THIS MAY LEAD TO
WEAK AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST. IN ALASKA, THE HEIGHT
PATTERN FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD PERSISTS, WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCLUDING SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHERE
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE U.S.
DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD CORRESPONDING TO PREDICTED WIDESPREAD NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS, EXCLUDING PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WHERE
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE-NORMAL. SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WARM
AND HUMID PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, GENERAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE WEST, BRINGS ENHANCED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THIS
REGION. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS AND LONG DAYS LEAD TO ENHANCED DIURNAL
HEATING THAT INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, AS
IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO
INDICATE A MORE ROBUST MONSOON PATTERN. THIS MAY LEAD TO INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST BY WEEK-2. DEW POINT FORECASTS
FROM THE GEFS INDICATE INCREASED MOISTURE WORKING INTO THE REGION AS WELL
DURING THE PERIOD. THIS LENDS TO A SLIGHTLY WETTER FORECAST RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY FORECAST AND PREVIOUS WEEK-2 FORECASTS. ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS, A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
MID-LEVEL AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS FAVORS A
LARGE AREA OF NEAR AND ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST, WITH BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION WEAKLY FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE MEAN FLOW PATTERN. IN
ALASKA, NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST MAINLAND AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, CONTINUING TO
SEE GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN AND WEAK HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JULY 20.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040623 - 19940724 - 20000717 - 20060629 - 19900622
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040622 - 20060629 - 19900623 - 19940723 - 20030702
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 18 - 22 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N A
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN N A RHODE IS A A
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUL 20 - 26 2023
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N A NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN A N AK INT BSN A N
AK S INT A N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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