893
FXUS01 KWBC 122010
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
410 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2023
VALID 00Z THU JUL 13 2023 - 00Z SAT JUL 15 2023
...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING PERSIST
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, MIDWEST, AND PLAINS OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS...
..HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
...BUILDING HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S....
A COMPLEX SUMMER-TIME PATTERN CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48, WITH THE FORECAST ON TRACK
FOR MULTIPLE CORRIDORS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY.
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A
CATALYST FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH DEEP
GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE IN PLACE AND WARM SUMMER-TIME TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AFTER NEARLY 10
INCHES OF RAIN FELL ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS/NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
LAST NIGHT (PROMPTING MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES), VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI LATER TODAY, WHERE LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 8" ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW. ACCORDINGLY, A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL
3/4) WAS INTRODUCED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TODAY AS NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS A WELL DEFINED
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ROLLS SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. AN ENHANCED
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) IS OUTLINED BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI, PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (SOME OF WHICH COULD
BE GREATER THAN 75 MPH) AND LARGE HAIL.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST, RENEWING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE NORTHEAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DRAW
MOISTURE NORTHWARD. SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK, INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND, AS WELL
AS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING EARLIER THIS WEEK, INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE TO ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, SO THE
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AS ANY CHANGES CAN
BRING BIG IMPACTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, BROAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SUPPORT SOME INSTANCES OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MEANWHILE, A STAGNANT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST/NORTHERN MEXICO WILL NOT ONLY REMAIN IN PLACE BUT BEGIN
TO BUILD IN COVERAGE, PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND CALIFORNIA. WIDESPREAD HEAT-RELATED ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA AS A VERY INTENSE HEAT WAVE TAKES SHAPE.
BY THIS WEEKEND, SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST LOOK TO MAKE A
RUN TO TIE OR BREAK THEIR ALL TIME RECORD HIGH. FOR LOCATIONS
FURTHER EAST IN THE PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHEAST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S COMBINED WITH
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL WARMER THAN 115 DEGREES THIS WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE REGION SHOWS A
CONTINUED HEATWAVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. TO
UNDERSCORE JUST HOW EXPANSIVE THIS HEAT IS, BASED OFF THE CURRENT
FORECAST APPROXIMATELY 27 MILLION PEOPLE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 WILL
EXPERIENCE AN AIR TEMPERATURE OR HEAT INDEX ABOVE 110 OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. IT IS IMPERATIVE USERS TAKE ACTION TO LIMIT THEIR
EXPOSURE TO THE OPPRESSIVE HOT WEATHER AS IT LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
FOR THE TIME BEING.
ASHERMAN/PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page